Step 6 — Technology Portfolio
Review the 17-technology breakthrough portfolio and mature technology stack. Set probability weights and deployment ceilings that, together with Step 5 policy abatement, will determine the residual gap in Step 7.
Scenario Probability Weights
Optimistic / Base / Pessimistic Weighting
P(base) = 1 − P(opt) − P(pes) = 50%
Covariance: ρ_elec = 0.21 (fusion, perovskite, green_H₂) · ρ_CDR = 0.25 (DAC, BECCS, enhanced weathering, ocean iron)
Breakthrough Technologies (17)
Technology Readiness & Abatement Potential
| Technology | Sector | TRL | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 base | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Ceiling |
|---|
All values in GtCO₂e/yr. TRL = Technology Readiness Level (1–9). Ceiling = deployment cap from resource / land constraints.
Mature Technology Stack (2030–2060)
Technology Sensitivity — Tornado Chart
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Options
CO₂ Storage Bottleneck
DAC + BECCS CDR demand vs verified geological storage build-out. Storage shortfall constrains CDR ceiling.
Budget Delay Cost (5-yr vs 10-yr)
GtCO₂ foregone due to delayed investment decision dates.
Infrastructure Cliff Dates
Latest Permissible Investment Decision Dates
Cliff = latest permissible investment decision date to achieve 2050 scale. Red = at cliff now. Yellow = 1–2 yr window.
Feeds into Step 7 (Gap Accounting): technology mean abatement, CDR ceiling, and δ factor
drive the breakthrough gap computation · Step 8 (Uncertainty): opt/pes weights set the Monte Carlo fan bounds