Economic model, climate model, and combined integrated forecast for the
Aviation sector under the default scenario envelope
(North America · 12-24 months · Delayed transition).
Economic model
Economic Outlook
IMF WEO baseline with CE industry adjustments anchors the economic baseline for North America. For aviation, global baseline growth, inflation, and policy context under fragmented policy conditions over the 12-24 months horizon.
GDP Growth
3.97%
conf 64%
Inflation
5.43%
conf 59%
Capital Formation
2.74%
conf 56%
Labor Tightness
0.67 index
conf 54%
Climate model
Climate Outlook
CMIP6 ensemble summary with CE near-term pathway overlays anchors the climate risk lens for North America. Under delayed transition conditions, long-run scenario diversity and physical risk framing is most relevant for aviation exposure.
Physical Hazard
0.7 index
conf 66%
Transition Pressure
1.04 index
conf 61%
Adaptive Resilience
0.35 index
conf 55%
Sector GHG Share
2.5%
of global emissions
Combined model
Integrated Forecast
aviation in North America faces elevated climate-linked pressure, but still retains selective growth potential if capital is redirected toward resilience and supply-chain hardening.
Pressure Index
0.83
Resilience Index
0.5
Opportunity Index
0.77
Confidence Index
0.64
Emissions accounting
Sector GHG Contribution
This sector accounts for 2.5% of global greenhouse gas
emissions. This is the causal input that modulates transition pressure in the climate model above —
higher-emitting sectors face larger regulatory and market transition obligations under any pathway.
Global GHG Share
2.5%
Decarbonisation Cost
0.88 index
Regulatory Exposure
0.82 index
BAU Trajectory
Rising
Paris Alignment Gap
Very Large
Primary emission sources:
jet kerosene combustion (Jet-A/A-1) · domestic and international flight operations · ground support equipment
Aviation is the hardest sector to decarbonise. EU ETS fully included from Jan 2024; CORSIA Phase 2 from 2027. SAF blending mandates (2% by 2025, 5% by 2030 in EU) impose significant cost premium. Delayed transition amplifies SAF compliance cost shock. Orderly reflects managed fleet renewal with green hydrogen/SAF ramp. Radiative forcing multiplier (2–4x CO2-only) not included in GHG share but raises effective climate impact substantially.
Sector indicators
Sector-Native KPIs
Operational and financial indicators specific to Aviation.
These contextualise the macro signals (GDP growth, inflation) with sector-level activity data.
Passenger Km Growth Pct
8.2
Freight Tonne Km Growth Pct
5.4
Fuel Cost Index
0.81
Saf Blend Pct
0.6
Saf Cost Premium Index
0.88
Eu Ets Exposure Score
0.9
Corsia Liability Index
0.74
Stranded Fleet Risk Score
0.74
GHG gas mix
Emissions by Gas Type
CO2 from kerosene combustion. NOx and water vapour contrails create additional radiative forcing equivalent to 2-4x CO2 impact. CH4 and N2O negligible. F-gas from aircraft refrigeration minimal. Sources: ICAO 2024 Environmental Report, Lee et al. (2021) Atmospheric Environment.
Company emissions — Scope 1 + 2
Direct & Energy Emissions by Company
Bars colour-coded by decarbonisation pace:
■ fast
■ moderate
■ slow.
Hover for net-zero target.
Carbon intensity
Scope 1 Intensity per $bn Revenue
Thousand tonnes CO₂e per billion USD revenue — the operational carbon cost of generating $1bn of
sector revenue. Lower is better. Colour = decarbonisation pace.
Supply-chain footprint
Scope 3 (Value-Chain) Emissions
Estimated Scope 3 emissions — upstream supply chain, sold-product end use, and downstream
processing. Company disclosures or IPCC Tier 2 estimates. Note the order-of-magnitude gap
between fossil producers and clean-energy companies.
Emissions intensity — pathway convergence
GHG Intensity per Unit of GDP — 2025–2045
Combined energy and carbon intensity index (base = 100 in 2025), derived from
the Kaya identity: EI index × CI index ÷ 100.
Faster convergence toward zero = stronger decoupling of output from emissions.
Source: CE Kaya decomposition calibrated to IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch. 3 & IEA NZE 2050.
Accelerated Transition achieves the steepest intensity reduction.
The gap between pathways by 2045 represents avoided emissions risk.
Transmission analysis
How Climate Risk Reaches Aviation
Operating pressure
0.7
Financing pressure
0.89
Supply-chain pressure
0.95
For aviation in North America, climate stress matters economically through operations, financing, and supplier reliability rather than through a single aggregate damage number.
Facility disruption
Flood and heat events slow throughput while labor tightness and energy costs reduce utilization.
Impact score0.74
Affectsthroughput, downtime, labor productivity
Supplier fragility
Trade fragmentation and localized climate shocks increase inventory and lead-time volatility.
Impact score0.71
Affectslead times, working capital, supplier diversification
Guidance
Analyst Guidance
Priority
Prioritise green hydrogen pathway feasibility studies for high-temperature process heat.
Priority
Reprice capex hurdle rates to reflect carbon-cost pass-through under $150/tCO₂.
Priority
Accelerate supply-chain reshoring to reduce exposure to climate-fragile logistics corridors.
Watch
CBAM certificate costs materially affecting competitiveness
Watch
Forced asset idling from acute extreme-weather events
Watch
Stranded-asset risk in fossil-fuel-dependent process equipment
Watch
Near-term regulatory announcement risk (COP outcomes, domestic carbon-price reviews)
Rationale
For aviation in North America, climate stress matters economically through operations, financing, and supplier reliability rather than through a single aggregate damage number.
Rationale
Primary operating pressure: 0.700
Rationale
Primary financing pressure: 0.890
Rationale
Composite pressure index: 0.830 (high band)
Rationale
Climate pathway: Delayed transition → delayed profile
Natural Capital Dependencies
Ecosystem service dependencies and projected depletion risk for the Aviation sector under a Delayed transition pathway (TNFD LEAP matrix, FAO data).
Dependency & depletion risk
| Ecosystem service | Dependency score | Depletion risk / decade | Dependency bar |
|---|
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Supply Chain Topology Risk
Network propagation of supply disruptions from the Aviation sector. Edges weighted by inter-sector dependency, geographic concentration and substitutability (OECD TiVA 2023, IMF GSCPI 2024).
Propagation summary
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Affected nodes & tier exposures
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