Scenario Workbench
Named regional and policy scenarios tested against the CE model. Each scenario defines a specific decarbonization mandate, constraint environment, and technology portfolio — and evaluates whether the mandate can be met within the given timeline. Model gaps and approximation fidelity are documented inline.
Bangladesh Bay of Bengal Climate Transition
Power-sector decarbonization in the world's most climate-vulnerable large economy under RMG export pressure
Bangladesh faces a dual climate mandate with no historical parallel: it is simultaneously a major victim of climate change and a significant contributor through…
Brazil Amazon Legal Reserve Reforestation
World's largest tropical forest restoration under Forest Code compliance and EUDR market pressure
Brazil hosts 60% of the Amazon biome — 3.9 million km² of the world's largest tropical forest, storing an estimated 150–200 Gt of carbon and generating 20% of g…
Cascading Infrastructure Failure Scenario
Heat wave → grid overload → water pumping failure → telecom collapse → supply chain disruption → hospital overload
The 2003 Northeast blackout began with a single software bug in Ohio and propagated to 55 million people across 8 US states and Canada within 8 seconds. Texas 2…
China Food Security Under Climate Stress: North China Plain Aquifer Depletion and Yangtze Drought
China's 95%+ grain self-sufficiency mandate colliding with North China Plain aquifer collapse and Yangtze River drought cycles
China's 95%+ grain self-sufficiency mandate (State Council Guideline No. 1 Document, 2024) underpins political legitimacy and strategic food security doctrine. …
Colorado River Basin Water-Energy Nexus Crisis Mandate
Replacing 2.2 GW of derated hydropower as Lake Mead and Powell fall below critical turbine head thresholds
The Colorado River Basin is entering a structural water deficit that cascades directly into the power grid. The river's natural annual flow has dropped from a 2…
Commercial Space Launch Surge — Stratospheric Forcing Trajectory
Tens of thousands of annual rocket launches deposit water vapor and black carbon directly in the stratosphere — the unregulated climate forcing agent that no current accounting framework tracks
The commercial space industry is on a trajectory to grow from ~250 launches per year today (2024) to potentially 5,000–100,000 launches per year by 2050. Unlike…
Electrification Material Constraint Scenario
Can the energy transition occur without a copper and transformer bottleneck?
The energy transition requires more copper per unit of energy output than any technology it replaces. A single offshore wind turbine contains 4–9 tonnes of copp…
European Dunkelflaute Grid Stress Test
Storage exhaustion timelines and reserve margin collapse during a 14-day dark doldrums + cold winter + LNG interruption
Dunkelflaute — German for 'dark doldrums' — is the meteorological event most feared by European grid operators: a high-pressure anticyclone over Central Europe …
Green Climate Fund Deployment Gap
The Distance Between Climate Finance Pledges and Project-Level Disbursement in Vulnerable Nations
The architecture of global climate finance rests on a network of multilateral funds — the Green Climate Fund ($13.5B approved), the Global Environment Facility …
UAE/Gulf Wet-Bulb Survival Energy Mandate
Decarbonizing 37 GW of gas-dominated grid as wet-bulb temperatures approach the 35°C human survivability threshold
The UAE and broader Gulf Cooperation Council face a convergence of two existential climate thresholds. First, wet-bulb temperatures in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha…
Himalayan Peak Water Transition
Glacier-Dependent Indus Basin Under Peak-Water Overshoot and Downstream Agriculture Collapse
The Indus Basin is the world's most glacier-dependent major river system outside the polar regions — 40% of its annual discharge originates from Himalayan and K…
India Himalayan Glacier Water Stress Transition
Peak water crisis and adaptation mandate for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Indus system under accelerating glacier retreat
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) glaciers supply meltwater to the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus river systems — the freshwater lifeline for 1.65 billion people ac…
Insurance Market Withdrawal Scenario
Which assets become economically nonviable first as insurers exit wildfire, flood, and hurricane markets?
Private insurance markets are withdrawing from the highest climate-risk US geographies faster than any climate policy has anticipated. State Farm and Allstate h…
Mekong River Cascade Stress
Transboundary Hydropower Competition and Agricultural Water Crisis
China's 11 mainstream dams on the Upper Mekong (Lancang cascade) regulate up to 40% of dry-season flow to the Lower Mekong. As climate-driven Tibetan Plateau gl…
Morocco Saharan Green Hydrogen Export Mandate
North Africa's first large-scale green hydrogen corridor linking Atlantic wind to EU industry
Morocco has positioned itself as the EU's closest green hydrogen corridor — Agadir sits 14 km closer to Rotterdam than Houston. The Kingdom's updated NDC (2023)…
Pakistan Climate-Amplified Flood Risk and Sovereign Debt Stress
Repeat mega-flood risk under IMF programme constraints: can Pakistan finance resilience without violating fiscal conditionality?
The 2022 Pakistan monsoon floods submerged one-third of the country, killed 1,739 people, displaced 33 million, and caused $30B in economic damage — equivalent …
Rust Belt Decarbonization Mandate
Regional power-sector mandate with industrial export penalty
A regional RTO covering a Rust Belt industrial corridor must achieve a 45% absolute reduction in power-sector CO₂ emissions from a 2026 baseline within 7 years …
Saudi Arabia ARAMCO Managed Energy Transition
Deploying 50 GW of solar to replace oil-fired generation, unlock $15B/yr in forgone export barrels, and meet CBAM obligations before Vision 2030 deadline
Saudi Arabia operates the world's most carbon-intensive large grid — burning 700,000 barrels per day of its own oil and gas to generate electricity, primarily f…
Shanxi Province Dual-Carbon Transition Mandate
Coal-heavy province decarbonization under China's 2035 peak targets
Shanxi Province — China's largest coal-producing region, contributing roughly 30% of national coal output — must achieve a 35% absolute reduction in power-secto…
South Australia 100% Net Renewable Grid
World's leading proof-of-concept for high-penetration renewable reliability in a market grid
South Australia is the world's most instructive large-scale proof that a modern economy can operate reliably on a high-penetration renewable grid — not as a fut…
South Florida Coastal Energy Resilience Mandate
Solar-led grid decarbonization with hurricane hardening
Florida's South Atlantic coastal energy district (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Martin counties) must achieve a 50% absolute reduction in power-sector CO…
Texas AI + Water Stress Compound Scenario
Can Texas remain the AI capital of North America under simultaneous drought, thermal derating, and demand surge?
ERCOT's mandate to absorb 15 GW of AI/data-center load by 2031 was designed for a single-vector stress: demand growth. It was not designed for compound drought …
Texas ERCOT AI-Driven Grid Expansion Mandate
Maintaining reliability against 15 GW AI/data-center demand surge by 2031
ERCOT — the near-isolated Texas grid serving 27 million customers — faces a structural reliability crisis driven by the fastest AI/data-center buildout in US hi…
Vietnam JETP Power Transition Mandate
Decarbonizing Southeast Asia's fastest-growing coal grid under $15.5B international finance package
Vietnam operates one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing electricity grids — demand has grown at 9.4% CAGR since 2010 and is projected to reach 535 TWh by 2030 …
3 sensitivity variants
Voluntary Carbon Market Credibility Crisis
When Offset Integrity Failure Voids the Corporate Net-Zero Architecture
The voluntary carbon market (VCM) underpins the net-zero pledges of companies representing $71 trillion in assets under management. It rests on a critical assum…
West Virginia Appalachian Coal-to-Clean Transition
Just transition mandate for America's most coal-dependent state grid under ARCH2 hydrogen hub
West Virginia generates 91% of its electricity from coal — the highest share of any U.S. state — and hosts approximately 14,000 direct coal mining jobs and 38,0…