Sector breakdown
Global GHG by Sector (2022)
GtCO₂e. IPCC AR6 WG3 SPM + GCP 2024.
Policy Simulation Wizard
Select an Industry
Walk through a full climate policy impact analysis — from physical hazard baseline to business-level exposure — with live scenario modelling.
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Choose the sector you want to analyse. Each industry has distinct climate risk exposures, policy transmission channels, and representative anchor companies.
Global Context
Global GHG Emissions — Why Each Sector Matters
All sectors combined (2022). Total ≈ 57 GtCO₂e including LULUCF. Source: IPCC AR6 WG3 · GCP 2024 · EDGAR v8.0.
Top emitters — all sectors
Top 10 Countries: Total GHG (2022)
MtCO₂e excl. LULUCF. EDGAR v8.0 + GCP 2024.
Historical trend
Global GHG Trend by Sector (2000–2022)
GtCO₂e/yr. IPCC AR6 WG3 + GCP 2024.
Sector shares & trends: IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers (2022) — ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3
Country totals: EDGAR v8.0 (JRC, 2024) — edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Carbon budget: Global Carbon Project 2024 — globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget
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Physical climate hazard baseline
Hazard Exposure Profile
0 = minimal exposure · 1 = maximum severity. Based on BAU pathway.
GHG emissions profile
Gas Breakdown
Anchor companies
Industry Representatives
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These are the policy levers available for this sector. Each instrument has a different effectiveness, implementation lag, and sectoral transmission channel.
Policy Instruments
Direct regulatory/pricing levers
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Adaptation Levers
Physical damage reduction instruments
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This is the projected outcome with no new policy action — the Business as Usual baseline your policy response will be compared against.
Physical damage
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% GDP damage
Fiscal position
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fiscal balance shift
Economic growth
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vs. baseline growth
Sector damage breakdown — BAU
Company BAU risk exposure
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Move the sliders to build your policy package. The live preview updates as you adjust each lever.
Climate Pathway
Planning Horizon
Policy Instruments
Adaptation Levers
Economic Impact — Policy vs Doing Nothing
Adjust the sliders to see how your policy choices affect the economy.
GHG Emissions
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Change in net greenhouse gas emissions versus BAU trajectory. Negative is good.
Climate Damage Avoided
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Economic losses from floods, heat, storms & droughts that your policy prevents as a % of GDP.
Carbon Revenue
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New government income from carbon pricing & permits — can fund adaptation or cut other taxes.
Net GDP Effect
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Policy costs (compliance, investment) minus damages avoided. The net drag or boost to economic output.
Government Budget
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Fiscal balance shift — carbon revenue raised minus extra disaster & adaptation spending. + = surplus.
Labor Productivity
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Worker output change from reduced heat stress & improved air quality. Policy reduces loss vs BAU.
Health Cost Savings
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Reduction in hospitalisation, illness & mortality costs from cleaner air and fewer extreme heat events.
Infrastructure Risk
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Change in physical damage risk to roads, utilities & buildings from avoided extreme weather. Negative = less risk.
Your chosen policy package produces the following outcomes compared to the BAU baseline.
Emissions reduction
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% change from BAU trajectory
Damage avoided
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% GDP damage avoided vs. BAU
Fiscal improvement
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Percentage point improvement
GDP effect
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Deviation from BAU growth path
Emissions trajectory — BAU vs your policy
Projected cumulative % change in sector GHG emissions over time. Below zero = net reduction. Steeper descent = stronger policy effect.
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GDP trajectory — BAU vs your policy
Net deviation from the baseline 2.5% growth path (pp). Short-term: transition costs dominate. Long-term: avoided damages and carbon revenue compound into a net gain.
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Why is the GDP effect positive or negative?
The GDP deviation is the net of competing forces. Green bars push growth up; red bars drag it down. The final bar is the net result at the medium-term horizon (~4 years).
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BAU vs. Policy — key metrics
Adaptation cost-benefit
Cost index—
Damage avoided—%
Cost-benefit ratio—
Carbon revenue—
Business exposure under your policy package
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Per-policy impact — emissions vs GDP growth
Each active policy instrument's contribution to the growth-emissions tradeoff. Green = favourable (GDP up / emissions down). Red = drag. Instruments at reference value are omitted.
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Green growth — GDP upside without additional emissions
Evidence-based policies that economic and climate models show can grow GDP while reducing sector emissions. Estimates from IMF, IEA, IPCC AR6 WG3, NGFS v4 and McKinsey Global Institute.
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How these projections relate to real-world climate & economic models
IPCC AR6 WG3 (2022)
The Sixth Assessment Report Working Group III defines the global emissions trajectories consistent with 1.5°C (C1 scenario class) and 2°C (C3/C4). The reference lines on the emissions chart and the pathway alignment badge above are calibrated against the WG3 Chapter 3 SPM cross-sector median, adjusted per-sector using IEA NZE 2050 sectoral breakdowns.
IEA Net Zero Emissions 2050
The IEA NZE 2050 provides granular sector milestones: no new fossil fuel development beyond approved projects post-2021, 90% clean electricity by 2030, 50% new EV sales by 2030, near-zero buildings by 2035. These anchor the long-horizon benchmark reductions shown on the chart.
NGFS v4 Scenarios (2023)
The Network for Greening the Financial System provides macro-financial scenarios — Orderly, Disorderly and Hot House World — used by 130+ central banks for climate stress-testing. GDP effect calibration and fiscal balance shifts follow the NGFS Orderly and Delayed Transition paths per sector.
IMF WEO & NiGEM model
Carbon pricing GDP effects follow the IMF G20 carbon pricing analysis (WEO 2023, Ch.3) and the NiGEM macro model for sectoral growth transmission. The fiscal balance shift metric implements the IMF carbon dividend recycling framework (WP/19/139). GDP estimates are denominated in deviation from the 2.5% long-run potential growth baseline.
Irreversible tipping points — what the science says
IPCC AR6 WG1 identifies 1.5°C as the critical threshold beyond which the probability of triggering self-reinforcing tipping points rises sharply: West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse (sea level +3–5 m over centuries), Amazon dieback, permafrost methane release, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening. At 2°C, several tipping points are classified as "likely activated" with cascading, centuries-long effects. The IPCC classifies impacts above 2°C as "widespread, severe and irreversible" for many natural and human systems. Staying below 1.5°C requires peak global emissions no later than 2025 and a 43% reduction by 2030 — making every policy-cycle decision materially consequential.
See how your policy package compares to the 8 canonical scenarios modelled by the CE engine. Lower score = better outcome (less damage, lower policy cost, better fiscal position).
Scenario ranking — industry
Canonical scenario details
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Recommendation
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