The physical direction of travel was right: heat and disruption pressure rose.
Historical Review
Why older forecasts were accurate or inaccurate.
CMIP5 high-emissions manufacturing stress case
The model directionally captured hotter operating conditions and more frequent disruption, but overstated the uniformity of regional stress.
The scenario compressed regional heterogeneity and adaptation effects.
Lesson: Use ensembles and regional transmission layers rather than reading a global scenario as an asset-level forecast.
Early-pandemic macro baseline miss
Pre-shock macro baselines missed the scale and speed of pandemic-era distortion in labor, supply chains, and inflation dynamics.
Policy-sensitive models adapted faster once the shock path was explicit.
Baseline assumptions were not built for compound global disruption and policy overhang.
Lesson: Stress regimes must be explicit and not treated as tails that can be ignored.
Legacy IAM energy transition forecast
Long-run transition direction was right, but short-run financing, mineral bottlenecks, and policy divergence were under-modeled.
The strategic direction of technology substitution held.
Short-run bottlenecks and sectoral frictions were treated too lightly.
Lesson: Do not confuse long-run welfare logic with operating-sequence realism.
Insurance coastal exposure review
Forecasts that combined hazard concentration with insurance repricing and capital pressure were directionally strong.
The model linked climate exposure to financial transmission channels instead of stopping at hazard maps.
Local regulatory responses still created pockets of deviation.
Lesson: Industry transmission is the difference between generic risk mapping and useful operating forecasts.