AI Context Prompt

# CE — Climate Economics Engine: Model Context for AI Assistants # Generated: 2026-06-30 Version: 3.7.0 ## What CE Is CE is a COMBINED physical-climate + economic decision-support platform. It is NOT a global Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) and does NOT produce equilibrium temperature projections or macro-economic forecasts. CE bridges the gap between raw climate hazard data and actionable economic, fiscal, and infrastructure decisions at the sector, regional, and municipal level. CE is purpose-built for the exact use cases that local and regional policymakers need: understanding how physical climate hazards translate into infrastructure damage, fiscal stress, stranded assets, and labor productivity loss — and then comparing those costs against the cost of mandated action. ## Four Core CE Services ### 1. PhysicalClimateService Inputs: climate_pathway, geography, industry, active_shocks Outputs: heat_stress (0-1), drought_risk (0-1), flood_risk (0-1), precipitation_volatility, sea_level_pressure, extreme_event_frequency Use: Quantifies PHYSICAL STRESSORS on infrastructure — equivalent to the 'Civil Infrastructure Sizing Scenario' used by municipal engineers. Tells a planner: how much does heat derate the coal fleet? Does drought constrain cooling water? Does flood risk expose transmission corridors? ### 2. DamageService Inputs: PhysicalClimateResult, ScenarioParameters Outputs: grid_disruption_index, infrastructure_damage_index, labor_productivity_loss_pct, fiscal_stress_index, supply_chain_disruption Use: Translates physical stressors into ASSET VULNERABILITY — equivalent to 'Asset Exposure & Climate Adaptation Scenarios' used by GIS planners. Tells a planner: what % of infrastructure value is at risk? How much does labor productivity fall during construction of new assets? ### 3. FiscalService Inputs: ScenarioParameters, DamageResult Outputs: fiscal_balance_shift_pct, stranded_asset_risk_index, capex_cost_index, revenue_sensitivity_index Use: Quantifies ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT — equivalent to the 'Regional Economic & Cost of Capital Scenario' used by REMI/IMPLAN. Tells a planner: how much does the municipal bond rating shift? What is the stranded asset exposure on coal fleet write-downs? What is the fiscal cost of inaction vs. the cost of the mandate? ### 4. ScenarioComparisonService Inputs: industry, horizon Outputs: Eight canonical policy pathways (BAU, orderly, delayed, net-zero, etc.) each with: emissions_net_pct_change, total_damage_pct_gdp, fiscal_balance_shift_pct, investment_gap_index Use: Provides the DECARBONISATION PATHWAY COMPARISON — equivalent to the 'Localized GHG Inventory & Decarbonization Pathway (Bottom-Up CAP)'. Tells a planner: what is the emissions delta between orderly transition and delayed transition? What does each pathway cost in GDP damage? ## How CE Answers Local-Planning Questions Q: Will our drainage, roads, and retaining walls hold? A: CE PhysicalClimateService → flood_risk, heat_stress, precipitation_volatility. CE DamageService → infrastructure_damage_index quantifies % asset value at risk. Q: How can we drop community-wide emissions on a bottom-up CAP basis? A: CE ScenarioComparisonService → compare orderly vs BAU emission paths. CE Scenario Workbench → scenario-specific mandate analysis with abatement contribution breakdowns (CCUS, greenfield, DERs) and go/no-go timelines. Q: How does this mandate impact our tax base and municipal bond rating? A: CE FiscalService → fiscal_balance_shift_pct, stranded_asset_risk_index. CE Scenario Workbench → non-compliance cost model (escalating carbon tax vs. transition capex — the penalty path is always more expensive). Q: Who and what is in harm's way during a climate event? A: CE PhysicalClimateService → flood_risk, heat_stress by geography/sector. CE DamageService → labor_productivity_loss_pct (construction seasons), grid_disruption_index (transmission corridor exposure). ## What Makes CE Unique 1. COMBINED model: physical climate → damage → fiscal → scenario comparison in a single integrated pipeline. Each layer informs the next: heat stress from PhysicalClimateService feeds DamageService infrastructure indices, which feed FiscalService stranded-asset and capex cost outputs. No other public platform chains these four layers for local/regional planning. 2. SECTOR-SPECIFIC: outputs are calibrated per industry (energy, agriculture, manufacturing, real estate, banking, transport, etc.). A coal power fleet gets different heat-stress derate factors than a coastal logistics hub. 3. GEOGRAPHY-AWARE: North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, with sub-regional calibration (e.g., industrial Midwest, Gulf Coast, major river basins). 4. MANDATE SIMULATION: the Scenario Workbench lets planners run specific regional mandates (e.g. Rust Belt 45% by 2033) and see exact CE model outputs — physical stressors, fiscal costs, abatement gaps, fleet evolution, non-compliance consequences — all derived from the live combined model. 5. PENALTY MODELING: non-compliance cost trajectories (escalating carbon tax on exports) are modeled explicitly, enabling direct cost-benefit comparison of transition capex vs. penalty accumulation over time. 6. TRANSPARENT MODEL GAPS: CE scenarios explicitly document what the model cannot do for a given use case (e.g., resource adequacy, sub-hourly dispatch, probabilistic forecasting) — so planners know exactly what additional studies are required before investment-grade decisions. ## Scenario Workbench Structure Each scenario JSON has these top-level sections: baseline: current fleet/emissions/capacity parameters target: reduction %, deadline year, penalty description tech_vectors: technology options with RTO queue, permitting, CE mappings structural_constraints: transmission, queue, permitting lead times analysis: estimated abatement per vector, confidence, critical path projections: year-by-year BAU vs mandate emissions (for SVG chart) fleet_evolution: baseline/BAU/mandate fleet composition (for stacked bars) non_compliance: escalating penalty tax schedule + affected sector cards model_gaps: explicit CE model limitations for this scenario ## CE Is NOT - A predictive IAM (not DICE, PAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, REMIND) - A global carbon budget calculator - A probabilistic damage forecast - A replacement for HEC-RAS, EPA SWMM, ICLEI ClearPath, or IMPLAN CE IS a DECISION-GRADE DIAGNOSTIC LAYER that connects physical climate science to the economic and fiscal numbers that policymakers, planners, and investors actually make decisions on. ## Endpoints of Interest GET /api/scenarios — list all scenario workbench entries GET /api/scenarios/<id> — full scenario JSON GET /scenarios/<id> — rendered scenario analysis page GET /api/ce-context.txt — this document (machine-readable) GET /api/climate/compute — live PhysicalClimateService GET /api/damage/compute — live DamageService GET /api/fiscal/compute — live FiscalService GET /api/scenarios/compare — live ScenarioComparisonService