Economic model, climate model, and combined integrated forecast for the
Shipping sector under the default scenario envelope
(North America · 12-24 months · Delayed transition).
Economic model
Economic Outlook
IMF WEO baseline with CE industry adjustments anchors the economic baseline for North America. For shipping, global baseline growth, inflation, and policy context under fragmented policy conditions over the 12-24 months horizon.
GDP Growth
1.67%
conf 62%
Inflation
4.83%
conf 57%
Capital Formation
1.84%
conf 54%
Labor Tightness
0.62 index
conf 52%
Climate model
Climate Outlook
CMIP6 ensemble summary with CE near-term pathway overlays anchors the climate risk lens for North America. Under delayed transition conditions, long-run scenario diversity and physical risk framing is most relevant for shipping exposure.
Physical Hazard
0.77 index
conf 64%
Transition Pressure
0.95 index
conf 59%
Adaptive Resilience
0.32 index
conf 53%
Sector GHG Share
2.9%
of global emissions
Combined model
Integrated Forecast
shipping in North America faces elevated climate-linked pressure, but still retains selective growth potential if capital is redirected toward resilience and supply-chain hardening.
Pressure Index
0.8
Resilience Index
0.48
Opportunity Index
0.49
Confidence Index
0.62
Emissions accounting
Sector GHG Contribution
This sector accounts for 2.9% of global greenhouse gas
emissions. This is the causal input that modulates transition pressure in the climate model above —
higher-emitting sectors face larger regulatory and market transition obligations under any pathway.
Global GHG Share
2.9%
Decarbonisation Cost
0.83 index
Regulatory Exposure
0.78 index
BAU Trajectory
Rising
Paris Alignment Gap
Large
Primary emission sources:
heavy fuel oil combustion (HFO/VLSFO) · marine diesel oil combustion · LNG dual-fuel vessel operations
IMO 2023 GHG Strategy targets 20% GHG reduction by 2030 and net-zero by 2050. CII carbon intensity ratings from Jan 2023 impose annual fuel-efficiency improvement obligations. EU ETS shipping inclusion from Jan 2024. Delayed transition means non-compliance fine exposure and stranded HFO fleet. Ammonia/methanol/H2 zero-emission vessels require substantial capex.
Sector indicators
Sector-Native KPIs
Operational and financial indicators specific to Shipping.
These contextualise the macro signals (GDP growth, inflation) with sector-level activity data.
Fleet Growth Pct
2.8
Bunker Cost Index
0.77
Cii Compliance Score
0.58
Imo Levy Exposure Score
0.82
Eu Ets Exposure Score
0.78
Hfo Stranded Fleet Index
0.68
Route Concentration Score
0.71
Ammonia Readiness Index
0.22
GHG gas mix
Emissions by Gas Type
CO2 dominant from HFO/MDO combustion. CH4 from LNG slip during dual-fuel operations and methane slip from older engines (~3.5% methane slip rate). SOx is a regulated pollutant rather than GHG. Sources: IMO GHG Study 2020, ICS Annual Review 2024.
Company emissions — Scope 1 + 2
Direct & Energy Emissions by Company
Bars colour-coded by decarbonisation pace:
■ fast
■ moderate
■ slow.
Hover for net-zero target.
Carbon intensity
Scope 1 Intensity per $bn Revenue
Thousand tonnes CO₂e per billion USD revenue — the operational carbon cost of generating $1bn of
sector revenue. Lower is better. Colour = decarbonisation pace.
Supply-chain footprint
Scope 3 (Value-Chain) Emissions
Estimated Scope 3 emissions — upstream supply chain, sold-product end use, and downstream
processing. Company disclosures or IPCC Tier 2 estimates. Note the order-of-magnitude gap
between fossil producers and clean-energy companies.
Emissions intensity — pathway convergence
GHG Intensity per Unit of GDP — 2025–2045
Combined energy and carbon intensity index (base = 100 in 2025), derived from
the Kaya identity: EI index × CI index ÷ 100.
Faster convergence toward zero = stronger decoupling of output from emissions.
Source: CE Kaya decomposition calibrated to IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch. 3 & IEA NZE 2050.
Accelerated Transition achieves the steepest intensity reduction.
The gap between pathways by 2045 represents avoided emissions risk.
Transmission analysis
How Climate Risk Reaches Shipping
Operating pressure
0.71
Financing pressure
0.76
Supply-chain pressure
0.77
For shipping in North America, climate stress matters economically through operations, financing, and supplier reliability rather than through a single aggregate damage number.
Facility disruption
Flood and heat events slow throughput while labor tightness and energy costs reduce utilization.
Impact score0.74
Affectsthroughput, downtime, labor productivity
Supplier fragility
Trade fragmentation and localized climate shocks increase inventory and lead-time volatility.
Impact score0.71
Affectslead times, working capital, supplier diversification
Guidance
Analyst Guidance
Priority
Prioritise green hydrogen pathway feasibility studies for high-temperature process heat.
Priority
Reprice capex hurdle rates to reflect carbon-cost pass-through under $150/tCO₂.
Priority
Accelerate supply-chain reshoring to reduce exposure to climate-fragile logistics corridors.
Watch
CBAM certificate costs materially affecting competitiveness
Watch
Forced asset idling from acute extreme-weather events
Watch
Stranded-asset risk in fossil-fuel-dependent process equipment
Watch
Near-term regulatory announcement risk (COP outcomes, domestic carbon-price reviews)
Rationale
For shipping in North America, climate stress matters economically through operations, financing, and supplier reliability rather than through a single aggregate damage number.
Rationale
Primary operating pressure: 0.710
Rationale
Primary financing pressure: 0.760
Rationale
Composite pressure index: 0.800 (high band)
Rationale
Climate pathway: Delayed transition → delayed profile
Natural Capital Dependencies
Ecosystem service dependencies and projected depletion risk for the Shipping sector under a Delayed transition pathway (TNFD LEAP matrix, FAO data).
Dependency & depletion risk
| Ecosystem service | Dependency score | Depletion risk / decade | Dependency bar |
|---|
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Supply Chain Topology Risk
Network propagation of supply disruptions from the Shipping sector. Edges weighted by inter-sector dependency, geographic concentration and substitutability (OECD TiVA 2023, IMF GSCPI 2024).
Propagation summary
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Affected nodes & tier exposures
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