Economic model, climate model, and combined integrated forecast for the
Energy sector under the default scenario envelope
(North America · 12-24 months · Delayed transition).
Economic model
Economic Outlook
IMF WEO baseline with CE industry adjustments anchors the economic baseline for North America. For energy, global baseline growth, inflation, and policy context under fragmented policy conditions over the 12-24 months horizon.
GDP Growth
1.47%
conf 66%
Inflation
4.53%
conf 61%
Capital Formation
3.84%
conf 58%
Labor Tightness
0.66 index
conf 56%
Climate model
Climate Outlook
CMIP6 ensemble summary with CE near-term pathway overlays anchors the climate risk lens for North America. Under delayed transition conditions, long-run scenario diversity and physical risk framing is most relevant for energy exposure.
Physical Hazard
0.66 index
conf 70%
Transition Pressure
0.97 index
conf 65%
Adaptive Resilience
0.4 index
conf 59%
Sector GHG Share
34.0%
of global emissions
Combined model
Integrated Forecast
energy in North America faces elevated climate-linked pressure, but still retains selective growth potential if capital is redirected toward resilience and supply-chain hardening.
Pressure Index
0.83
Resilience Index
0.53
Opportunity Index
0.68
Confidence Index
0.67
Emissions accounting
Sector GHG Contribution
This sector accounts for 34.0% of global greenhouse gas
emissions. This is the causal input that modulates transition pressure in the climate model above —
higher-emitting sectors face larger regulatory and market transition obligations under any pathway.
Global GHG Share
34.0%
Decarbonisation Cost
0.76 index
Regulatory Exposure
0.81 index
BAU Trajectory
Falling
Paris Alignment Gap
Large
Primary emission sources:
fossil fuel combustion · oil & gas extraction · coal mining & processing · flaring & venting
Delayed transition embeds fossil-fuel price shock and stranded-asset write-down risk. Orderly transition reflects carbon pricing certainty and managed investment rotation.
Sector indicators
Sector-Native KPIs
Operational and financial indicators specific to Energy.
These contextualise the macro signals (GDP growth, inflation) with sector-level activity data.
Renewable Penetration Pct
38.4
Stranded Asset Risk Score
0.71
Grid Investment Index
0.84
Fossil Fuel Revenue Dependency
0.62
Power Price Volatility Score
0.69
Capex Shift To Clean Pct
64
GHG gas mix
Emissions by Gas Type
CO2 from combustion. CH4 from oil/gas methane leakage (~2-3% loss rate) and coal mine methane. N2O and F-gas minor. Sources: IEA Methane Tracker 2024, EPA Inventory.
Company emissions — Scope 1 + 2
Direct & Energy Emissions by Company
Bars colour-coded by decarbonisation pace:
■ fast
■ moderate
■ slow.
Hover for net-zero target.
Carbon intensity
Scope 1 Intensity per $bn Revenue
Thousand tonnes CO₂e per billion USD revenue — the operational carbon cost of generating $1bn of
sector revenue. Lower is better. Colour = decarbonisation pace.
Supply-chain footprint
Scope 3 (Value-Chain) Emissions
Estimated Scope 3 emissions — upstream supply chain, sold-product end use, and downstream
processing. Company disclosures or IPCC Tier 2 estimates. Note the order-of-magnitude gap
between fossil producers and clean-energy companies.
Emissions intensity — pathway convergence
GHG Intensity per Unit of GDP — 2025–2045
Combined energy and carbon intensity index (base = 100 in 2025), derived from
the Kaya identity: EI index × CI index ÷ 100.
Faster convergence toward zero = stronger decoupling of output from emissions.
Source: CE Kaya decomposition calibrated to IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch. 3 & IEA NZE 2050.
Accelerated Transition achieves the steepest intensity reduction.
The gap between pathways by 2045 represents avoided emissions risk.
Country-level breakdown
Energy Sector Emissions by Country & Trend
Sector GHG emissions by country (2022). Hover bars for the secondary metric. Colour = region.
See source citations below.
Top 15 emitters — 2022
Energy Emissions by Country
Top 15 emitters. Colour = region. Hover for details.
Trajectory — 2010–2022
Energy Trend: Top Emitters
Annual GHG trend for the six largest sector emitters.
Data sources
Company emissions: CDP disclosures, company sustainability reports (2022–2024)
Transmission analysis
How Climate Risk Reaches Energy
Operating pressure
0.69
Financing pressure
0.99
Supply-chain pressure
0.7
For energy in North America, climate stress matters economically through operations, financing, and supplier reliability rather than through a single aggregate damage number.
Grid resilience and peak load
Heat and acute weather raise outage risk while investment costs shape asset replacement timing.
Impact score0.76
Affectsoperating margin, capex timing, reliability
Policy and generation mix
Transition policy and financing conditions reprice generation portfolios and interconnection decisions.
Impact score0.72
Affectspower pricing, capital allocation, regulatory exposure
Guidance
Analyst Guidance
Priority
Model a late-escalation carbon price shock in portfolio valuations — delayed transition carries binary transition-risk tail.
Priority
Initiate managed wind-down of high-carbon generation assets to limit stranded-asset exposure.
Priority
Deploy balance-sheet capacity into grid modernisation and offshore wind to capture transition revenue.
Priority
Engage regulators proactively to shape cost-recovery frameworks for early movers.
Watch
Stranded-asset write-down triggers and accounting treatment
Watch
Regulatory forbearance timelines for thermal decommissioning
Watch
Social licence risk from energy affordability pressures
Watch
Near-term regulatory announcement risk (COP outcomes, domestic carbon-price reviews)
Rationale
For energy in North America, climate stress matters economically through operations, financing, and supplier reliability rather than through a single aggregate damage number.
Rationale
Primary operating pressure: 0.690
Rationale
Primary financing pressure: 0.990
Rationale
Composite pressure index: 0.830 (high band)
Rationale
Climate pathway: Delayed transition → delayed profile
Natural Capital Dependencies
Ecosystem service dependencies and projected depletion risk for the Energy sector under a Delayed transition pathway (TNFD LEAP matrix, FAO data).
Dependency & depletion risk
| Ecosystem service | Dependency score | Depletion risk / decade | Dependency bar |
|---|
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Supply Chain Topology Risk
Network propagation of supply disruptions from the Energy sector. Edges weighted by inter-sector dependency, geographic concentration and substitutability (OECD TiVA 2023, IMF GSCPI 2024).
Propagation summary
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Affected nodes & tier exposures
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