Growth & Emissions

Decoupling Analysis

Three views of the growth-emissions relationship. The Kaya decomposition shows which levers separate GDP from emissions. The trajectory chart shows whether absolute decoupling is achieved under each pathway. The company quadrant shows where each firm sits today.

Kaya Identity Decomposition — indexed to 100 at 2025

Emissions = GDP output × Energy intensity × Carbon intensity of energy. When the Emissions index falls while GDP rises, absolute decoupling is occurring. Source: IEA NZE 2024, IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch. 3.

Industry

Pathway

Absolute Decoupling Trajectories — GDP vs GHG indexed to 100 at 2025

Solid lines = GDP growth. Dashed lines = GHG trajectory. Lines that diverge upward (GDP) and downward (GHG) show absolute decoupling — economic growth happening alongside falling emissions.

Industry

Company Decoupling Quadrant — 34 calibration companies

X-axis: implied revenue growth rate (%/yr, sector baseline ± pace). Y-axis: implied absolute emissions change (%/yr; negative = cutting emissions). Bubble size = Scope 1 emissions (MtCO₂e). Companies in the upper-right quadrant are growing revenue while cutting emissions — absolute decoupling.