Climate Globe
Transition Pathway
Year: 2050
Uniform global values — all cities share the same reading. Pathway comparison shown above the globe.
Ocean SST: basin sample points vs 1990 baseline. Currents: animated major circulation systems.
Distributed atmospheric fields — hex-bin CO₂ distribution and wildfire smoke ring intensity.
Land surface hazard fields. For fire visualizations, select 🔥 Wildfires from the View Type dropdown.
Four ways to see fire data — each uses a different visualization:
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Country-level GDP growth choropleth — green (growth) to red (contraction) per pathway.
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Emerging Technologies
Projected climate & economic impact by 2050. Readiness levels based on current development trajectories.
⚡ Clean Energy
Nuclear Fusion
Tokamak & inertial confinement · ITER, NIF, private ventures
CO₂ offset
–2–6 GtCO₂/yr
Deployment
2040–2060
Cost trajectory
↓ High →
low LCOE
low LCOE
Near-limitless carbon-free energy from hydrogen isotope fusion. ITER (France) targets first plasma 2025; commercial plants projected 2045–2060. Private ventures (Commonwealth Fusion, TAE, Helion) may accelerate timelines by a decade.
⚠ Tritium supply constraints · long development lead times · potential neutron activation of structural materials
Perovskite & Tandem Solar
Next-generation photovoltaics · >40% efficiency target
CO₂ offset
–4–8 GtCO₂/yr
Cost reduction
–50–70%
Deployment
2027–2035
Perovskite-silicon tandems have achieved 33%+ lab efficiency, surpassing conventional silicon limits. Mass production could halve solar LCOE by 2030, accelerating grid decarbonisation worldwide.
⚠ Lead content in some formulations · long-term field durability uncertain · recycling infrastructure needed
Green Hydrogen
Electrolytic H₂ from renewable electricity · hard-to-abate sectors
CO₂ offset
–3–7 GtCO₂/yr
Cost (2030 target)
$2/kg H₂
Key sectors
Steel · Ship · Chem
Electrolysis powered by renewables produces zero-emission hydrogen. Currently $4–6/kg; scale-up and cheaper renewable electricity could reach $1–2/kg by 2030–2035, unlocking decarbonisation of shipping, steel, and chemicals.
⚠ Energy-intensive production · storage and transport challenges · risk of "grey" H₂ greenwashing
🌱 Carbon Removal & Capture
Direct Air Capture (DAC)
Mechanical CO₂ extraction from atmosphere · Climeworks, Carbon Engineering
Potential by 2050
1–5 GtCO₂/yr
Current cost
$300–1000/t
Target cost
$100–150/t
Chemical sorbents or liquid solvents strip CO₂ directly from ambient air. Today's plants capture thousands of tonnes/year; 2030 targets are hundreds of millions. Costs must drop 5–10× for climate-relevant scale.
⚠ Enormous energy and water demands · land use for geological storage · moral hazard risk for emissions reduction
BECCS
Bioenergy + Carbon Capture & Storage · biomass power with CO₂ injection
Potential by 2050
3–10 GtCO₂/yr
Land required
100–500 Mha
Water intensity
Very high
Biomass grown to absorb CO₂ is burned for power; flue gases captured and stored underground. Central to many IPCC 1.5°C pathways but contested due to land competition with food production and biodiversity.
⚠ Land and food security trade-offs · water use · iLUC emissions risk · geological storage permanence
Enhanced Rock Weathering
Crushed silicate rock spread on farmland to lock CO₂ as bicarbonate
Potential by 2050
2–4 GtCO₂/yr
Est. cost
$80–180/t
Co-benefit
Soil fertility ↑
Basalt or dunite rock ground fine and applied to agricultural soils; CO₂ dissolves into water reacting with silicate minerals, forming bicarbonates that flow to the ocean over decades. Simultaneous crop-yield benefits noted in field trials.
⚠ Mining and transport emissions · nickel/chromium leaching risk · long permanence verification timeline
Ocean Iron Fertilisation
Seeding iron-limited ocean regions to stimulate phytoplankton blooms
Theoretical max
~1–3 GtCO₂/yr
Permanence
Decades only
Ecosystem risk
High
Iron sulphate dissolved in Southern Ocean upwelling zones triggers phytoplankton blooms; carbon fixed through photosynthesis sinks to the deep ocean. Small-scale experiments (LOHAFEX, OIF trials) showed limited efficiency and high ecological variability.
⚠ Hypoxic dead zones · disruption of marine food webs · low permanence · unilateral deployment governance gaps · currently under UNCLOS/London Protocol moratorium
🚗 Transport & Mobility
Battery Electric Vehicles
BEV passenger & commercial · solid-state next generation
CO₂ offset by 2050
–4–6 GtCO₂/yr
Fleet share 2050
60–85%
Battery cost
↓ <$60/kWh
Electric vehicles already outsell ICE cars in several markets. Solid-state batteries (Toyota, QuantumScape) target 2027–2030 commercialisation with higher energy density and faster charging. Full fleet transition could remove ~15–20% of global transport emissions.
⚠ Grid carbon content · lithium/cobalt mining impacts · charging infrastructure equity gaps · battery recycling scale-up needed
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)
Bio- and e-fuel drop-in replacements for jet fuel
Lifecycle CO₂ cut
–70–90%
2050 blend target
10–100%
Current cost premium
3–5×
SAF includes HEFA (hydroprocessed esters), alcohol-to-jet, and Power-to-Liquid e-fuels. Under 1% of global jet fuel today; ICAO CORSIA mechanism and mandates in the EU and UK aim for 10–70% blend by 2050.
⚠ Feedstock competition · current high cost · non-CO₂ climate effects (NOx, contrails) not fully resolved
🌍 Geo-Engineering
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
Sulphate particles at 20–25 km altitude to reflect sunlight
Cooling potential
–0.5–2.0°C
Cost (low estimate)
$2–8 B/yr
Termination risk
Severe
Injecting SO₂ or CaCO₃ particles into the stratosphere could reduce global mean temperature within months, mimicking volcanic eruptions. Harvard SCoPEx and other research programs are studying dispersion. No international governance framework exists.
⚠ Monsoon disruption · ozone depletion · geopolitical weaponisation risk · termination shock if deployment halted · does not address ocean acidification
Marine Cloud Brightening
Sea-salt spray to increase low-cloud reflectivity over oceans
Cooling potential
–0.1–1.0°C
Regional focus
Coral reefs · Arctic
Reversibility
Days–weeks
Vessels spray fine sea-salt aerosols below marine stratocumulus clouds to enhance albedo. Proposed for localised protection of coral reefs (Great Barrier Reef cooling trials 2020–2021). More reversible than SAI but limited global scale.
⚠ Regional precipitation shifts · downstream crop impacts · unknown cloud-climate feedbacks · no regulatory framework
Reflective & High-Albedo Surfaces
Cool roofs, white pavements, reflective crop varieties, desert mirrors
Urban cooling
–1–4°C local
Global cooling
–0.01–0.1°C
Energy savings
10–20% A/C
Cool roofs with solar-reflective coatings and high-albedo urban materials reduce local surface temperatures by 1–4°C, cutting air-conditioning demand and urban heat island intensity. Space-based solar shields remain speculative (LaGrange point L1 sail concepts).
⚠ Albedo changes can alter regional precipitation patterns · some reflective coatings degrade · snow and ice albedo feedbacks complex
♻ Circular Economy & Waste
Advanced Recycling & Material Recovery
Chemical recycling, urban mining, closed-loop manufacturing
CO₂ offset potential
–1–3 GtCO₂/yr
Material saving
30–50% virgin
Economic value
$4.5 T/yr by 2030
Chemical recycling (pyrolysis, solvolysis) breaks plastics and composites back to monomers. Urban mining of e-waste recovers rare earth elements and precious metals. Transitioning to circular supply chains can reduce industrial emissions by 30–45%.
⚠ Chemical recycling energy intensity · contamination challenges · policy and collection infrastructure gaps
Green Steel & Cement
H₂-DRI steelmaking · low-carbon clinker and supplementary cementitious materials
Sector CO₂ (2023)
~3.5 GtCO₂/yr
Abatement potential
–70–90%
Commercial readiness
2030–2040
HYBRIT (SSAB/Vattenfall/LKAB) and SALCOS projects replace coking coal with green hydrogen in direct reduced iron (DRI) processes. Low-carbon cement substitutes (geopolymers, CCUS-integrated kilns) target similar reductions in construction materials.
⚠ Green H₂ availability at scale · capex for new plant · carbon border adjustment mechanisms needed to prevent offshoring
Projections based on IPCC AR6, IEA Net Zero 2050, and published peer-reviewed literature (2023–2025).
Ranges reflect low–high deployment scenario spread. Not investment advice.
Global CO₂
--ppm
NZ1.5 --
Ord --
Del --
Dis --
Layer
0
100
Accumulated since Jan 1, 2000
Planetary Heat Absorbed (ZJ)
000.0000000
zettajoules · full Earth energy system
World Economic Output ($T)
$0000.0000000 T
USD trillions accumulated
Current EEI: — W/m² · — YJ/yr
Where does the heat go?
Ocean 0–700m (57%)
Ocean 700–2km (18%)
Deep ocean (9%)
Land/perma. (9.5%)
Atmosphere (3.5%)
Ice/glaciers (3%)
Where does the money go?
Household (56%)
Government (15%)
Other investment (22.5%)
Clean energy (2.5%)
Fossil fuels (1%)
Trade & other (3%)
World Bank 2023 · IEA World Energy Investment 2024
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Hothouse Earth: Runaway Climate Timeline Under a high-emission no-mitigation scenario (SSP5-8.5 / RCP8.5) · Sources: IPCC AR6, Lenton et al. 2019, Steffen et al. 2018
Today
2025
+1.3°C
Accelerating Baseline
- CO₂ at 425 ppm — highest in 3 million years
- Arctic sea ice at record lows; ice sheets losing mass
- Coral bleaching events now annual in tropics
- Extreme heat events 5× more frequent than pre-industrial
2040
+1.8°C
Tipping Point Cascade Begins
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet destabilisation likely
- Amazon dieback begins in eastern basin (~25% of canopy)
- First ice-free Arctic summer recorded
- Permafrost thaw releasing ~0.9 GtCO₂/yr (feedback loop opens)
- ~200 million climate migrants projected by this decade
2060
+2.4°C
2°C Threshold Crossed
- Coral reef systems globally functionally extinct (>99% bleached)
- Sea level rise committed to >2 m even under later mitigation
- Lethal wet-bulb temperatures (>35°C) in South Asia, Persian Gulf annually
- Amazon crosses tipping point — net carbon source, not sink
- Greenland Ice Sheet irreversibly committed to full melt (+7 m SLR)
- Global crop yield reductions: wheat −10%, maize −15%
2080
+3.2°C
High-End Warming — 3°C World
- Permafrost collapse releasing ~3 GtCO₂/yr — self-reinforcing
- Mediterranean, Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa largely uninhabitable in summer
- 1 billion people exposed to chronic water scarcity
- Boreal forest dieback triggers loss of Northern carbon sink
- Major river systems (Ganges, Mekong, Colorado) heavily reduced
- $100T cumulative economic loss (Swiss Re / IMF estimates)
2100
+4.4°C
SSP5-8.5 End-of-Century (IPCC AR6)
- Sea levels +0.6–1.0 m (IPCC median); up to +2 m under ice sheet instability
- Tropical regions 45°C+ wet-bulb conditions for months annually
- Virtually all glaciers outside polar regions gone
- 6th mass extinction: 50%+ of species at risk of extinction this century
- Western Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse locked in (+3.3 m eventual SLR)
- Monsoon systems destabilised — 2B+ face food insecurity
2150
+5.5°C
Feedback-Driven Warming
- Natural carbon sinks all reversed — biosphere net emitter
- Permafrost and ocean methane clathrate emissions dominant
- Tropical belt largely uninhabitable year-round for outdoor activity
- Human civilisation confined to polar and high-altitude regions
- Sea levels rising 1–2 cm/yr — most coastal cities abandoned
- Global agricultural capacity reduced by ~60% from today
2300
+7–8°C
Committed Long-Run Warming
- East Antarctic Ice Sheet begins contributing to SLR (+50 m eventual)
- Global mean sea level +10–15 m above present
- Entire tropics and subtropics uninhabitable without technology
- Comparable to PETM extinction event (~56 Ma ago, +5–8°C)
- Most of today's megabiomes collapsed or transformed
~3000
+10–12°C
Ice-Free Earth Trajectory
- All land-based ice gone — sea level +65 m above present
- No habitable land below 50°N/S without technological life support
- Ocean acidification pH ~7.8 (vs 8.2 pre-industrial) — marine food chains collapsed
- Analogous to Eocene Optimum (~50 Ma ago) — no ice on Earth
- Recovery timescale for CO₂ drawdown: 100,000+ years
>10,000 yrs
>+15°C
Moist Greenhouse Threshold
- Theoretical Venus-like runaway only if feedback loops fully unconstrained
- Water vapour feedback could amplify warming beyond recovery
- Stratospheric water vapour rise accelerates further warming
- Not considered physically possible under fossil fuel burning alone
- Included as theoretical boundary — shows direction, not probability
Sources: IPCC AR6 WG1 (2021) SPM · Steffen et al. (2018) "Hothouse Earth" PNAS · Lenton et al. (2019) "Climate tipping points" Nature ·
Armstrong McKay et al. (2022) "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming" Science · IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch.16 (Adaptation limits) ·
Zeebe et al. (2016) PETM analogue. Temperature ranges are scenario-dependent estimates, not precise forecasts. SSP5-8.5 represents a high-emission no-mitigation pathway.
Climate Signals
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