CE Scenario Library
Named Scenario Workbench
Regional mandates, infrastructure crises, and transition stress-tests — each defined with explicit constraints, technology portfolios, and known model limitations.
Bangladesh Bay of Bengal Climate Transition
Power-sector decarbonization in the world's most climate-vulnerable large economy under RMG export pressure
Bangladesh faces a dual climate mandate with no historical parallel: it is simultaneously a major victim of climate change and a significant contributor through rapid industrial electrification. The country loses an esti…
2033
Deadline
40%
Reduction
63.6
Mt CO₂ baseline
low
Confidence
Brazil Amazon Legal Reserve Reforestation
World's largest tropical forest restoration under Forest Code compliance and EUDR market pressure
Brazil hosts 60% of the Amazon biome — 3.9 million km² of the world's largest tropical forest, storing an estimated 150–200 Gt of carbon and generating 20% of global freshwater cycling. After reaching a peak annual defor…
2030
Deadline
90%
Reduction
medium
Confidence
Cascading Infrastructure Failure Scenario
Heat wave → grid overload → water pumping failure → telecom collapse → supply chain disruption → hospital overload
The 2003 Northeast blackout began with a single software bug in Ohio and propagated to 55 million people across 8 US states and Canada within 8 seconds. Texas 2021 (Winter Storm Uri) cascaded from grid failure to natural…
2035
Deadline
medium
Confidence
China Food Security Under Climate Stress: North China Plain Aquifer Depletion and Yangtze Drought
China's 95%+ grain self-sufficiency mandate colliding with North China Plain aquifer collapse and Yangtze River drought cycles
China's 95%+ grain self-sufficiency mandate (State Council Guideline No. 1 Document, 2024) underpins political legitimacy and strategic food security doctrine. The mandate requires domestic production of rice, wheat, and…
2030
Deadline
11700
Mt CO₂ baseline
medium
Confidence
Colorado River Basin Water-Energy Nexus Crisis Mandate
Replacing 2.2 GW of derated hydropower as Lake Mead and Powell fall below critical turbine head thresholds
The Colorado River Basin is entering a structural water deficit that cascades directly into the power grid. The river's natural annual flow has dropped from a 20th-century average of 14.8 MAF to ~10.2 MAF (2026 estimate)…
2032
Deadline
15%
Reduction
45.0
Mt CO₂ baseline
medium
Confidence
Commercial Space Launch Surge — Stratospheric Forcing Trajectory
Tens of thousands of annual rocket launches deposit water vapor and black carbon directly in the stratosphere — the unregulated climate forcing agent that no current accounting framework tracks
The commercial space industry is on a trajectory to grow from ~250 launches per year today (2024) to potentially 5,000–100,000 launches per year by 2050. Unlike surface transport, rockets deposit combustion products — wa…
2050
Deadline
Electrification Material Constraint Scenario
Can the energy transition occur without a copper and transformer bottleneck?
The energy transition requires more copper per unit of energy output than any technology it replaces. A single offshore wind turbine contains 4–9 tonnes of copper. A utility-scale solar farm uses 5–7 tonnes/MW. An EV use…
2033
Deadline
high
Confidence
European Dunkelflaute Grid Stress Test
Storage exhaustion timelines and reserve margin collapse during a 14-day dark doldrums + cold winter + LNG interruption
Dunkelflaute — German for 'dark doldrums' — is the meteorological event most feared by European grid operators: a high-pressure anticyclone over Central Europe that simultaneously suppresses wind speeds across the North …
2035
Deadline
55%
Reduction
medium
Confidence
Green Climate Fund Deployment Gap
The Distance Between Climate Finance Pledges and Project-Level Disbursement in Vulnerable Nations
The architecture of global climate finance rests on a network of multilateral funds — the Green Climate Fund ($13.5B approved), the Global Environment Facility ($5.2B), the Adaptation Fund ($1.1B), and the new Loss & Dam…
2030
Deadline
50%
Reduction
high
Confidence
UAE/Gulf Wet-Bulb Survival Energy Mandate
Decarbonizing 37 GW of gas-dominated grid as wet-bulb temperatures approach the 35°C human survivability threshold
The UAE and broader Gulf Cooperation Council face a convergence of two existential climate thresholds. First, wet-bulb temperatures in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha have already exceeded 32–33°C WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperat…
2032
Deadline
45%
Reduction
58.0
Mt CO₂ baseline
Himalayan Peak Water Transition
Glacier-Dependent Indus Basin Under Peak-Water Overshoot and Downstream Agriculture Collapse
The Indus Basin is the world's most glacier-dependent major river system outside the polar regions — 40% of its annual discharge originates from Himalayan and Karakoram glaciers, rising to 70% in the critical June–August…
2040
Deadline
35%
Reduction
212
Mt CO₂ baseline
medium
Confidence
India Himalayan Glacier Water Stress Transition
Peak water crisis and adaptation mandate for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Indus system under accelerating glacier retreat
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) glaciers supply meltwater to the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus river systems — the freshwater lifeline for 1.65 billion people across South Asia. IPCC AR6 WGII (2022) projects Hindu Kush Hi…
2035
Deadline
35%
Reduction
2400
Mt CO₂ baseline
low
Confidence
Insurance Market Withdrawal Scenario
Which assets become economically nonviable first as insurers exit wildfire, flood, and hurricane markets?
Private insurance markets are withdrawing from the highest climate-risk US geographies faster than any climate policy has anticipated. State Farm and Allstate have stopped writing new homeowners policies in California. F…
2035
Deadline
35%
Reduction
high
Confidence
Mekong River Cascade Stress
Transboundary Hydropower Competition and Agricultural Water Crisis
China's 11 mainstream dams on the Upper Mekong (Lancang cascade) regulate up to 40% of dry-season flow to the Lower Mekong. As climate-driven Tibetan Plateau glacier retreat reduces headwater availability and upstream re…
2035
Deadline
40%
Reduction
24.6
GW fleet
medium
Confidence
Morocco Saharan Green Hydrogen Export Mandate
North Africa's first large-scale green hydrogen corridor linking Atlantic wind to EU industry
Morocco has positioned itself as the EU's closest green hydrogen corridor — Agadir sits 14 km closer to Rotterdam than Houston. The Kingdom's updated NDC (2023) mandates 52% renewable electricity by 2030 and a 18.5 Mt gr…
2032
Deadline
45%
Reduction
17.8
Mt CO₂ baseline
medium
Confidence
Pakistan Climate-Amplified Flood Risk and Sovereign Debt Stress
Repeat mega-flood risk under IMF programme constraints: can Pakistan finance resilience without violating fiscal conditionality?
The 2022 Pakistan monsoon floods submerged one-third of the country, killed 1,739 people, displaced 33 million, and caused $30B in economic damage — equivalent to 9% of Pakistan's GDP. The floods were driven by the confl…
2030
Deadline
200
Mt CO₂ baseline
low
Confidence
Rust Belt Decarbonization Mandate
Regional power-sector mandate with industrial export penalty
A regional RTO covering a Rust Belt industrial corridor must achieve a 45% absolute reduction in power-sector CO₂ emissions from a 2026 baseline within 7 years (by 2033). Failure triggers an immediate escalating carbon t…
2033
Deadline
45%
Reduction
23.4
Mt CO₂ baseline
low
Confidence
Saudi Arabia ARAMCO Managed Energy Transition
Deploying 50 GW of solar to replace oil-fired generation, unlock $15B/yr in forgone export barrels, and meet CBAM obligations before Vision 2030 deadline
Saudi Arabia operates the world's most carbon-intensive large grid — burning 700,000 barrels per day of its own oil and gas to generate electricity, primarily for air conditioning and desalination. This 'burning the furn…
2030
Deadline
40%
Reduction
185.0
Mt CO₂ baseline
Shanxi Province Dual-Carbon Transition Mandate
Coal-heavy province decarbonization under China's 2035 peak targets
Shanxi Province — China's largest coal-producing region, contributing roughly 30% of national coal output — must achieve a 35% absolute reduction in power-sector CO₂ emissions from the 2026 baseline by 2035, aligned with…
2035
Deadline
35%
Reduction
38.2
Mt CO₂ baseline
low
Confidence
South Australia 100% Net Renewable Grid
World's leading proof-of-concept for high-penetration renewable reliability in a market grid
South Australia is the world's most instructive large-scale proof that a modern economy can operate reliably on a high-penetration renewable grid — not as a future aspiration, but as a documented, operational reality. Th…
2030
Deadline
42%
Reduction
1.92
Mt CO₂ baseline
high
Confidence
South Florida Coastal Energy Resilience Mandate
Solar-led grid decarbonization with hurricane hardening
Florida's South Atlantic coastal energy district (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Martin counties) must achieve a 50% absolute reduction in power-sector CO₂ emissions from the 2026 baseline by 2035. The region's nat…
2035
Deadline
50%
Reduction
19.8
Mt CO₂ baseline
low
Confidence
Texas AI + Water Stress Compound Scenario
Can Texas remain the AI capital of North America under simultaneous drought, thermal derating, and demand surge?
ERCOT's mandate to absorb 15 GW of AI/data-center load by 2031 was designed for a single-vector stress: demand growth. It was not designed for compound drought + thermal derating + extended wind drought arriving simultan…
2031
Deadline
2%
Reduction
99.0
Mt CO₂ baseline
medium
Confidence
Texas ERCOT AI-Driven Grid Expansion Mandate
Maintaining reliability against 15 GW AI/data-center demand surge by 2031
ERCOT — the near-isolated Texas grid serving 27 million customers — faces a structural reliability crisis driven by the fastest AI/data-center buildout in US history. Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) and co…
2031
Deadline
2%
Reduction
99.0
Mt CO₂ baseline
medium
Confidence
Vietnam JETP — Chinese Lender Block Variant
CDB/Exim Bank block Vinh Tan 2/4 + Vung Ang 2 capacity-factor reduction — mandate missed
Sensitivity variant on vietnam_jetp_transition: China Development Bank and Export-Import Bank of China invoke sovereign guarantee clauses in the Power Purchase Agreements for Vinh Tan 2 (1,244 MW, CDB-financed), Vinh Tan…
2030
Deadline
17.9%
Reduction
158
Mt CO₂ baseline
medium
Confidence
Vietnam JETP — Delayed Transmission Variant
Circuits 4+5 slip 2 years: Central region curtailment locked at 32% through 2030
Sensitivity variant on vietnam_jetp_transition: the North-South 500 kV transmission backbone (Circuits 4+5) is delayed two years — commissioning 2032 instead of 2030 — due to provincial land acquisition disputes in Quang…
2030
Deadline
17.9%
Reduction
158
Mt CO₂ baseline
medium
Confidence
Vietnam JETP — Optimistic JETP Fast-Track Variant
Offshore wind fast-track extends to 4.5yr — first 4 GW operational by 2030
Sensitivity variant on vietnam_jetp_transition: a full JETP Article 7 cabinet waiver extends the JETP IPIP fast-track permitting regime to offshore wind, compressing the Ministry of National Defence maritime clearance an…
2030
Deadline
17.9%
Reduction
158
Mt CO₂ baseline
low
Confidence
Vietnam JETP Power Transition Mandate
Decarbonizing Southeast Asia's fastest-growing coal grid under $15.5B international finance package
Vietnam operates one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing electricity grids — demand has grown at 9.4% CAGR since 2010 and is projected to reach 535 TWh by 2030 (Power Development Plan 8 baseline). The country signed the …
2030
Deadline
17.9%
Reduction
158
Mt CO₂ baseline
low
Confidence
Voluntary Carbon Market Credibility Crisis
When Offset Integrity Failure Voids the Corporate Net-Zero Architecture
The voluntary carbon market (VCM) underpins the net-zero pledges of companies representing $71 trillion in assets under management. It rests on a critical assumption: that carbon offsets sold as 'carbon credits' genuinel…
2030
Deadline
80%
Reduction
high
Confidence
West Virginia Appalachian Coal-to-Clean Transition
Just transition mandate for America's most coal-dependent state grid under ARCH2 hydrogen hub
West Virginia generates 91% of its electricity from coal — the highest share of any U.S. state — and hosts approximately 14,000 direct coal mining jobs and 38,000 coal-dependent employment positions (mining supply chain,…
2033
Deadline
40%
Reduction
35.8
Mt CO₂ baseline
low
Confidence