Validation Dashboard
Benchmark comparisons vs IPCC AR6, NGFS Phase IV, IEA NZE, DICE-2023, GCAM, and observed data.
Benchmark sources: IPCC AR6 WG1, WG3 · NGFS Phase IV · IEA NZE 2050 · DICE-2023 · GCAM 6.0 · Swiss Re sigma · Howard & Sterner (2017)
| ID | Model | Metric | CE value | Benchmark | Error % | Threshold | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAL-CLM-001 | MDL-001 |
GMST anomaly 1990–2020 (°C above 1850–1900) Historical backtest |
0.92 | 0.96 | 4.2% | 10.0% | PASS | HadCRUT5 / NASA GISS observed temperature record |
| VAL-CLM-002 | MDL-001 |
2100 GMST anomaly under SSP1-1.9 (°C) Scenario cross-validation vs IPCC AR6 |
1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0% | 5.0% | PASS | IPCC AR6 WG1 Table SPM.1 — SSP1-1.9 2100 median te… |
| VAL-CLM-003 | MDL-001 |
2100 GMST anomaly under SSP5-8.5 (°C) Scenario cross-validation vs IPCC AR6 |
4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3% | 5.0% | PASS | IPCC AR6 WG1 Table SPM.1 — SSP5-8.5 2100 median te… |
| VAL-CLM-004 | MDL-001 |
2100 temperature under current policies (°C) Benchmark comparison vs NGFS |
3.1 | 3.0 | 3.3% | 10.0% | PASS | NGFS Phase IV — Current Policies scenario 2100 war… |
| VAL-ECO-001 | MDL-002 |
GDP damage as % baseline at 2°C warming Benchmark comparison vs DICE-2023 |
1.07 | 1.15 | 7.0% | 15.0% | PASS | Nordhaus DICE-2023 optimal path GDP loss at 2°C |
| VAL-ECO-002 | MDL-002 |
GDP deviation from baseline under NZE scenario 2050 (%) Benchmark comparison vs IEA/NGFS |
-2.1 | -1.8 | 16.7% | 20.0% | PASS | NGFS Phase IV — NZE scenario GDP impact vs baselin… |
| VAL-DAM-001 | MDL-003 |
Global insured natural cat loss 5-year average ($/yr) Historical validation — observed damage record |
98.0 | 105.0 | 6.7% | 20.0% | PASS | Swiss Re sigma database 2000–2022 (natural catastr… |
| VAL-DAM-002 | MDL-003 |
GDP damage fraction at 3°C warming (%) Benchmark comparison vs literature |
2.4 | 2.5 | 4.0% | 15.0% | PASS | Howard & Sterner (2017) meta-analysis central esti… |
| VAL-MC-001 | MDL-005 |
P5/P95 stability: % change in P5 temperature from N=2000 to N=10000 Convergence test |
1.3 | 0.0 | 1.3% | 2.0% | PASS | CE internal convergence analysis (N=500, 1000, 200… |
| VAL-GAP-001 | MDL-009 |
Net abatement available by 2030 vs 2019 baseline (GtCO₂e/yr) Scenario cross-validation vs IPCC |
31.0 | 35.0 | 11.4% | 20.0% | PASS | IPCC AR6 WG3 Figure SPM.7 — 2030 abatement potenti… |
| VAL-GAP-002 | MDL-009 |
Share of energy sector in total 2050 abatement (%) Benchmark comparison vs GCAM |
43.0 | 47.0 | 8.5% | 15.0% | PASS | GCAM 6.0 NZE 2050 scenario sectoral abatement brea… |