Mass Extinctions & Climate

The history of life on Earth has been punctuated by catastrophic die-offs — each one driven by, or driving, extreme climate disruption. Five events wiped out more than 75% of all species. Every one involved rapid temperature change, ocean chemistry shifts, or both.

Global Temperature & Extinction Events — 550 Ma to Present

Temperature anomaly from geochemical proxies (δ¹⁸O, Mg/Ca, GEOCARB) · extinction intensity shown as vertical bands · width proportional to duration

Red bands = warm-event extinctions (rapid warming, ocean anoxia, CO₂ acidification). Blue bands = cold-event extinctions (glaciation, sea-level fall, habitat fragmentation). Yellow band = impact event (K-Pg asteroid). Note the tight coupling between climate excursions and biodiversity crashes throughout the Phanerozoic.

Extinction Severity — Species Lost

Estimated % of all marine species eliminated at each event

Temperature Change at Each Event

Rapid ΔT associated with the extinction horizon (global mean estimate)

The Big Five & Notable Events

Common Climate Mechanisms

Recurring pathways by which climate change kills species en masse

  • 🌋 Large Igneous Province (LIP) volcanism — Eruption of flood basalts over millions of km² injects SO₂ (short-term cooling) then CO₂ (long-term warming). Drives ocean anoxia, acidification, and temperature swings that collapse marine ecosystems. Implicated in End-Permian, End-Triassic, and contributed to Late Devonian.
  • 🌡️ Rapid warming → ocean anoxia — Warmer oceans hold less dissolved oxygen. Stratification prevents deep-water reoxygenation. Black shales (anoxic sediments) are the geological fingerprint. The End-Permian ocean became almost entirely anoxic, making much of the seafloor uninhabitable for centuries.
  • ❄️ Glaciation → sea-level fall — Rapid ice sheet growth locks water on land, dropping sea level by tens of metres. Shallow continental shelves — home to the vast majority of marine life — are exposed and desiccated. Drove the End-Ordovician extinction. Sea-level fall also fragments habitats and eliminates carbonate reef ecosystems.
  • ☠️ CO₂ acidification — Rapid CO₂ injection (volcanic or impact) lowers ocean pH, dissolving calcite and aragonite shells. Organisms that build shells — corals, molluscs, forams, echinoderms — face direct chemical dissolution. The End-Permian and PETM both show carbonate dissolution horizons in the sedimentary record.
  • 💥 Impact winter → collapse of photosynthesis — A large impactor throws dust, soot, and sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, blocking sunlight for months to years. Plants and phytoplankton die → the food web collapses from the base upward. The K-Pg Chicxulub impact is the only confirmed example in the Big Five, but the mechanism is well-understood from nuclear winter models.

Recovery Times

How long it took ecosystems to rebuild diversity after each event

Recovery is not simply re-filling empty niches. After the End-Permian, ecosystems that had taken 300 million years to evolve were replaced by entirely new body plans and ecological architectures. The current rate of extinction is estimated at 100–1,000× the background rate — comparable to a mass extinction horizon in the geological record. Unlike past events, the current driver is a single species acting over decades rather than millions of years.