Model Comparison › Energy-System Optimization

Energy-System Optimization & Large-Scale Calibration

Wright's Law learning curves for 8 clean-energy technologies, Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) trajectories to 2050, and simplified least-cost capacity-mix optimization. Calibrated to IEA WEO 2023, IRENA 2023, BloombergNEF, and NREL ATB 2024.

SCENARIO:

DEMAND:

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Solar LCOE 2050

USD/MWh (NZE)

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Onshore Wind 2050

USD/MWh

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Battery Storage 2050

USD/MWh discharged

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Green Hydrogen 2050

USD/kg

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Optimal Mix LCOE

USD/MWh weighted avg

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Firm Power Fraction

vs. peak demand

LCOE Trajectories — All Technologies (2024–2050)

Least-Cost Capacity Mix

Cumulative Deployment — Key Technologies

Merit Order at Target Year

#	Technology	LCOE (USD/MWh)	Capacity Factor	Max System Share

Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2023 (STEPS/APS/NZE scenarios) · IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs 2023 · BloombergNEF 2H2023 Long-Term Energy Outlook · NREL Annual Technology Baseline 2024 · IPCC AR6 WG3 Chapter 6 (technology cost projections). Learning rates from Lafond et al. (2018) "How well do experience curves predict technological progress?" Energy Policy. Capacity mix uses simplified merit-order dispatch — not a full mixed-integer LP; treat as indicative.