Economic model, climate model, and combined integrated forecast for the
Transport sector under the default scenario envelope
(North America · 12-24 months · Delayed transition).
Economic model
Economic Outlook
IMF WEO baseline with CE industry adjustments anchors the economic baseline for North America. For transport, global baseline growth, inflation, and policy context under fragmented policy conditions over the 12-24 months horizon.
GDP Growth
2.17%
conf 67%
Inflation
4.33%
conf 62%
Capital Formation
2.24%
conf 59%
Labor Tightness
0.7 index
conf 57%
Climate model
Climate Outlook
CMIP6 ensemble summary with CE near-term pathway overlays anchors the climate risk lens for North America. Under delayed transition conditions, long-run scenario diversity and physical risk framing is most relevant for transport exposure.
Physical Hazard
0.72 index
conf 69%
Transition Pressure
0.85 index
conf 64%
Adaptive Resilience
0.41 index
conf 58%
Sector GHG Share
16.0%
of global emissions
Combined model
Integrated Forecast
transport in North America faces elevated climate-linked pressure, but still retains selective growth potential if capital is redirected toward resilience and supply-chain hardening.
Pressure Index
0.77
Resilience Index
0.52
Opportunity Index
0.6
Confidence Index
0.67
Emissions accounting
Sector GHG Contribution
This sector accounts for 16.0% of global greenhouse gas
emissions. This is the causal input that modulates transition pressure in the climate model above —
higher-emitting sectors face larger regulatory and market transition obligations under any pathway.
Global GHG Share
16.0%
Decarbonisation Cost
0.79 index
Regulatory Exposure
0.74 index
BAU Trajectory
Rising
Paris Alignment Gap
Large
Primary emission sources:
road freight (diesel HGV) · aviation (jet fuel, Scope 1 domestic + international) · international shipping (bunker fuel) · rail (diesel traction)
Under Delayed transition: IMO CII non-compliance fines, EU ETS aviation phase-in, EV mandate shock costs, and stranded diesel-fleet write-downs. Under Orderly: IMO 2028 carbon levy is contractually near-term regardless of pathway; fleet electrification capex is a firm obligation; transport gets higher orderly adj than most sectors for this reason.
Sector indicators
Sector-Native KPIs
Operational and financial indicators specific to Transport.
These contextualise the macro signals (GDP growth, inflation) with sector-level activity data.
Freight Volume Growth Pct
3.2
Passenger Km Growth Pct
4.8
Fuel Cost Index
0.73
Fleet Ev Penetration Pct
12.4
Decarbonization Capex Index
0.79
Imo Levy Exposure Score
0.65
Demand Linkage Score
0.82
Modal Shift Score
0.24
GHG gas mix
Emissions by Gas Type
CO2 dominant from fossil fuel combustion across road, air, sea, and rail. N2O from catalytic converters. CH4 from CNG vehicles, LNG shipping, and diesel incomplete combustion. F-gas negligible. Sources: IEA Transport 2024, ICAO 2024, IMO 2023.
Company emissions — Scope 1 + 2
Direct & Energy Emissions by Company
Bars colour-coded by decarbonisation pace:
■ fast
■ moderate
■ slow.
Hover for net-zero target.
Carbon intensity
Scope 1 Intensity per $bn Revenue
Thousand tonnes CO₂e per billion USD revenue — the operational carbon cost of generating $1bn of
sector revenue. Lower is better. Colour = decarbonisation pace.
Supply-chain footprint
Scope 3 (Value-Chain) Emissions
Estimated Scope 3 emissions — upstream supply chain, sold-product end use, and downstream
processing. Company disclosures or IPCC Tier 2 estimates. Note the order-of-magnitude gap
between fossil producers and clean-energy companies.
Emissions intensity — pathway convergence
GHG Intensity per Unit of GDP — 2025–2045
Combined energy and carbon intensity index (base = 100 in 2025), derived from
the Kaya identity: EI index × CI index ÷ 100.
Faster convergence toward zero = stronger decoupling of output from emissions.
Source: CE Kaya decomposition calibrated to IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch. 3 & IEA NZE 2050.
Accelerated Transition achieves the steepest intensity reduction.
The gap between pathways by 2045 represents avoided emissions risk.
Country-level breakdown
Transport Sector Emissions by Country & Trend
Sector GHG emissions by country (2022). Hover bars for the secondary metric. Colour = region.
See source citations below.
Top 15 emitters — 2022
Transport Emissions by Country
Top 15 emitters. Colour = region. Hover for details.
Trajectory — 2010–2022
Transport Trend: Top Emitters
Annual GHG trend for the six largest sector emitters.
Data sources
Company emissions: CDP disclosures, company sustainability reports (2022–2024)
Transmission analysis
How Climate Risk Reaches Transport
Operating pressure
0.74
Financing pressure
0.76
Supply-chain pressure
0.75
For transport in North America, climate stress matters economically through operations, financing, and supplier reliability rather than through a single aggregate damage number.
Network disruption
Storms, flood exposure, and acute heat degrade route reliability and infrastructure uptime.
Impact score0.79
Affectsroute reliability, maintenance cost, network utilization
Fuel and policy pressure
Transition policy and energy volatility reprice fleets, insurance, and modal demand.
Impact score0.69
Affectsfleet economics, insurance pricing, demand mix
Guidance
Analyst Guidance
Priority
ZEV mandate acceleration is the primary policy tail risk — build fleet transition optionality into procurement contracts now.
Priority
Expedite full ZEV transition — ICE fleet stranded-asset losses escalate non-linearly beyond 2030.
Priority
Invest in route redundancy and climate-resilient logistics hubs to maintain service reliability.
Priority
Engage government on co-funding frameworks for charging infrastructure in underserved corridors.
Watch
Acute infrastructure failure cascades affecting contractual SLAs
Watch
ICE vehicle residual values collapsing ahead of schedule
Watch
Regulatory ratchet on NOₓ/CO₂ fleet-average standards
Watch
Near-term regulatory announcement risk (COP outcomes, domestic carbon-price reviews)
Rationale
For transport in North America, climate stress matters economically through operations, financing, and supplier reliability rather than through a single aggregate damage number.
Rationale
Primary operating pressure: 0.740
Rationale
Primary financing pressure: 0.760
Rationale
Composite pressure index: 0.770 (high band)
Rationale
Climate pathway: Delayed transition → delayed profile
Natural Capital Dependencies
Ecosystem service dependencies and projected depletion risk for the Transport sector under a Delayed transition pathway (TNFD LEAP matrix, FAO data).
Dependency & depletion risk
| Ecosystem service | Dependency score | Depletion risk / decade | Dependency bar |
|---|
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Supply Chain Topology Risk
Network propagation of supply disruptions from the Transport sector. Edges weighted by inter-sector dependency, geographic concentration and substitutability (OECD TiVA 2023, IMF GSCPI 2024).
Propagation summary
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Affected nodes & tier exposures
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