Live Data Feed

CE model parameters are calibrated weekly against authoritative external observations — atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from NOAA, water quality from USGS, and market signals from FRED. Each refresh uses GPT-5.4 to translate raw values into small, defensible parameter adjustments.

2026-05-26
Last refresh
Weekly
Cadence
3
Reports on file
GPT-5.4
AI model
22/31
Sources live
—
Next refresh
Last run was a dry run — parameter files were not modified. Run python data_refresh_agent.py (without --dry-run) to write changes.
Atmospheric & Environmental
Weekly Live
Atmospheric CO₂
432.25ppm
2026-05-17
Primary greenhouse gas driver of climate hazard index
NOAA GML / Mauna Loa Observatory
Monthly Live
Atmospheric CH₄
1940.43ppb
2026-01
Second-largest GHG; rising trend elevates hazard risk
NOAA GML global network
Monthly Live
Atmospheric N₂O
339.72ppb
2026-01
Long-lived GHG; contributes to transition risk index
NOAA GML global network
Daily Live
Surface NO₂
13.29µg/m³
2026-05-26  · 9 samples
Air quality proxy for urban/industrial emissions pressure
OpenAQ v3 (API key required)
Daily Live
Dissolved Oxygen
8.24mg/L
2026-05-26  · 3343 samples
Water quality stress indicator; declining DO signals thermal loading
USGS NWIS stream gauges (8 states)
Energy & Financial Markets
Weekly Live
WTI Crude Oil
105.10USD/bbl
2026-05-15
Stranded asset and transition cost signal
EIA API (key required)
Weekly Live
Henry Hub Gas
15.07USD/MMBtu
2026-02
Natural gas bridge-fuel pricing for transition models
EIA API (key required)
Daily Live
Brent Crude Oil
116.73USD/bbl
2026-05-18
Global oil price signal for economic transition cost
FRED / ICE via St Louis Fed
Monthly Live
EU ETS Carbon Price
0.86EUR/tonne
2025-10-01
European carbon market signal for transition risk index
FRED / ECB exchange rate series
Daily Live
US 10-Year Treasury
4.57%
2026-05-21
Discount rate proxy for long-horizon climate investment NPV
FRED / US Treasury
Credit & Financial Conditions
Weekly Live
Chicago Fed NFCI
-0.52index
2026-05-15
Tight financial conditions (positive index) suppress climate investment
FRED / Chicago Fed (key required)
Daily Live
Baa–10Y Credit Spread
1.59%
2026-05-21
Corporate credit risk proxy; widens under transition stress
FRED / Moody's (key required)
Daily Live
10Y Breakeven Inflation
2.40%
2026-05-22
Market-implied inflation expectations; anchor for economic model calibration
FRED / US Treasury (key required)
Institutional Macro
Bi-annual Live
IMF World GDP Growth
3.10%/yr
2026
Primary macro baseline for growth parameters across all economic models
IMF DataMapper API
Bi-annual Live
IMF World Inflation
4.40%/yr
2026
Global inflation forecast used to calibrate economic model inflation params
IMF DataMapper API
Bi-annual Live
IMF World Govt Debt
95.30% of GDP
2026
Sovereign fiscal space; high debt constrains transition investment capacity
IMF DataMapper API
Annual Live
Global Renewables Share
27.84% of total electricity
2021
Renewable electricity penetration drives resilience and transition scores
World Bank Open Data API
Annual Live
Global Fossil Fuel Rents
3.07% of GDP
2021
Fossil rent dependency signals stranded-asset and transition risk exposure
World Bank Open Data API
Disaster Risk & Physical Hazards
Ongoing Unavailable
NOAA NCEI Disasters (YTD)
Not fetched this cycle — source unavailable
Billion-dollar event count calibrates physical hazard scores in all climate models
NOAA NCEI (public)
Annual Live
Global Temp Anomaly
1.19°C vs 1951–1980
2025
Core climate state variable; primary calibration anchor for cmip6-core and era5-calibrated
NASA GISS GISTEMP v4 (public)
Commodities & Transition Deployment
Monthly Live
LME Copper Price
12,529 USD/metric ton
2026-03-01
Critical minerals constraint on clean-energy deployment; high copper prices slow transition
FRED / IMF Primary Commodity Prices (key required)
Monthly Live
Global Wheat Price
193.88USD/metric ton
2026-03-01
Climate-agriculture signal; price spikes indicate crop stress from heat and drought
FRED / IMF Primary Commodity Prices (key required)
Monthly Live
US Renewables Generation Share
32.5 % of monthly MWh
2026-03
Actual US clean-energy deployment pace vs ce-solution-scale and ce-balanced-transition targets
EIA Electric Power Monthly (API key required)
AI Demand & Activity Signals
Daily Unavailable
TSA Passenger Throughput
Not fetched this cycle — source unavailable
High-frequency mobility and demand signal; useful context for transport emissions and economic activity
TSA Passenger Volumes (public)
Monthly Unavailable
US Vehicle Miles Traveled
Not fetched this cycle — source unavailable
Road transport activity proxy for fuel demand, logistics intensity, and transport-linked emissions pressure
FRED / FHWA Traffic Volume Trends (public)
Monthly Unavailable
US Coal Mining Index
Not fetched this cycle — source unavailable
Coal extraction activity proxy for fossil supply-side pressure and emissions trajectory
FRED / Federal Reserve Industrial Production (public)
Annual Unavailable
Coal Power CO2 Emissions
Not fetched this cycle — source unavailable
Delivered/consumed coal burn proxy in electric power system, directly linked to annual emissions burden
FRED / EIA emissions series (public)
Monthly Unavailable
US Construction Spending
Not fetched this cycle — source unavailable
Macro growth and buildout signal; informs materials demand, energy load growth, and embodied emissions context
FRED / U.S. Census (public)
Emissions Tracking
Trade-adjusted accounting view from CE consumption metrics: emissions per capita and emissions per GDP after reallocating embodied trade flows.
27
Countries in trade-adjusted set
11
Net importers (embedded emissions)
15
Net exporters (embedded emissions)
Activity context for emissions pressure
TSA Passenger Throughput
Daily
Unavailable this cycle
US Vehicle Miles Traveled
Monthly
Unavailable this cycle
US Coal Mining Index
Monthly
Unavailable this cycle
Coal Power CO2 Emissions
Annual
Unavailable this cycle
US Construction Spending
Monthly
Unavailable this cycle
Country Role Trade-adjusted per capita
(t CO2/person)		 Trade-adjusted per GDP
(t CO2 / $M GDP)		 Trade balance emissions
(Mt CO2)		 Accounting note
United States (USA) net importer 16.03 211.6 +530.0 Large net importer of embedded manufacturing emissions.
Canada (CAN) net importer 15.71 279.0 +40.0 Imported manufactured goods offset part of resource-export position.
Saudi Arabia (SAU) net exporter 15.08 489.2 -180.0 Hydrocarbon export structure makes territorial emissions overstate domestic final demand.
South Korea (KOR) net importer 13.67 425.7 +110.0 High final-demand import content lifts consumption emissions.
Kazakhstan (KAZ) net exporter 11.21 968.2 -90.0 Energy and metals exports dominate trade-adjusted accounting.
Australia (AUS) net exporter 11.04 168.8 -140.0 Resource exports move part of embodied emissions offshore.
Russia (RUS) net exporter 10.76 691.5 -220.0 Energy and material exports shift embodied emissions abroad.
Japan (JPN) net importer 10.02 296.2 +200.0 Import-dependent industrial consumption raises final-demand burden.
Poland (POL) net importer 9.29 511.6 +30.0 Slight net importer of embedded emissions.
Germany (DEU) net importer 8.92 183.6 +90.0 Advanced manufacturing importer on net embedded-carbon basis.
Iran (IRN) net exporter 8.00 1784.6 -70.0 Export-oriented fossil energy profile reduces consumption-based burden.
China (CHN) net exporter 7.26 570.5 -1150.0 Large net exporter of embedded manufacturing emissions.
EU-27 (EU27) net importer 7.21 192.9 +520.0 Consumption exceeds territorial emissions due to imported industrial goods.
United Kingdom (GBR) net importer 7.09 156.5 +150.0 Offshored production materially raises consumption-based emissions.
Malaysia (MYS) net exporter 6.45 519.5 -40.0 Electronics and commodity exports reduce domestic final-demand burden.
South Africa (ZAF) net exporter 6.38 934.1 -35.0 Minerals and industrial exports shift some emissions to importers.
Turkey (TUR) net importer 5.60 523.1 +35.0 Net importer of embodied emissions in final-demand accounting.
France (FRA) net importer 5.44 133.1 +85.0 Imported manufactured goods raise final-demand burden.
Argentina (ARG) net exporter 3.91 285.7 -15.0 Food and materials exports reduce domestic final-demand burden.
Mexico (MEX) balanced 3.77 341.8 0.0 Near-balanced CE trade adjustment at this level of aggregation.
Source: data/adapters/consumption_trade_adjustments.json + data/adapters/country_emissions.json via ce/services/consumption_metrics.py
Sovereign Fiscal Positions — Top GHG Emitters 10 nations · % of GDP · IMF DataMapper
#1 GHG emitter
China
-8.2% GDP
Deficit 2026
#2 GHG emitter
United States
-7.5% GDP
Deficit 2026
#3 GHG emitter
India
-7.4% GDP
Deficit 2026
#4 GHG emitter
Russia
-2.0% GDP
Deficit 2026
#5 GHG emitter
Japan
-2.0% GDP
Deficit 2026
#6 GHG emitter
Germany
-3.8% GDP
Deficit 2026
#7 GHG emitter
S. Korea
-1.5% GDP
Deficit 2026
#8 GHG emitter
Canada
-2.7% GDP
Deficit 2026
#9 GHG emitter
Saudi Arabia
-3.5% GDP
Deficit 2026
#10 GHG emitter
Brazil
-7.7% GDP
Deficit 2026
Fetched 2026-05-26  ·  ≥+2% surplus   0–3% deficit   3–6%   >6% deficit  ·  data/adapters/country_fiscal.json
Major GHG Emitter — Quarterly Earnings 11 companies · most recent quarter · SEC EDGAR
Ticker Company Sector Quarter Revenue ($B) Net Income ($B) Rev QoQ
XOM ExxonMobil Oil & Gas 2026-03-31 85.1 +4.2 -0.2%
CVX Chevron Oil & Gas 2026-03-31 48.6 +2.2 -2.3%
COP ConocoPhillips Oil & Gas 2026-03-31 15.8 +2.2 +4.9%
NEE NextEra Energy Utilities 2026-03-31 6.7 +2.2 -15.9%
DUK Duke Energy Utilities 2026-03-31 9.2 +1.6 +7.4%
SO Southern Co. Utilities 2026-03-31 8.4 +1.4 +7.3%
LIN Linde Industrial 2026-03-31 8.8 +1.9 +1.9%
GM General Motors Auto 2026-03-31 43.6 +2.6 -10.2%
F Ford Motor Auto 2026-03-31 43.2 -0.0 -14.4%
BTU Peabody Energy Coal 2026-03-31 1.0 -0.0 -3.8%
UAL United Airlines Aviation 2026-03-31 14.6 +0.7 -4.1%
Fetched 2026-05-26  ·  10-Q quarterly filings via data.sec.gov/api/xbrl  ·  data/adapters/emitter_earnings.json
Urban Temperature View 57 cities · current conditions + daily highs and lows · Open-Meteo
Select city
30-day high
--
30-day low
--
Quick picks
City history
High / low daily temperatures
10-year daily comparison (Jan-Dec)
Select one or more years to compare daily mean temperatures.
Date High Low Mean
Fetched 2026-05-26 UTC  ·  Full series in data/adapters/city_temperatures.json

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Parameter Changes Applied
climate_inputs.cmip6-core.base.hazard 0.69 0.71
climate_inputs.cmip6-core.base.resilience 0.48 0.49
climate_inputs.era5-calibrated.base.hazard 0.62 0.64
climate_inputs.era5-calibrated.base.resilience 0.54 0.55
climate_inputs.gfdl-physical.base.hazard 0.74 0.76
climate_inputs.gfdl-physical.base.resilience 0.44 0.45
economic_inputs.imf-weo-2026.base.inflation 3.1 3.2
economic_inputs.imf-weo-2026.base.investment 1.9 1.85
economic_inputs.frb-us-policy.base.inflation 2.7 2.8
economic_inputs.frb-us-policy.base.investment 1.4 1.35
economic_inputs.nigem-global.base.inflation 3.4 3.5
GPT-5.4 Rationale
  • cmip6-core hazard is raised from 0.69 to 0.71 because CO₂ at 432.25 ppm, CH₄ at 1940.43 ppb, N₂O at 339.72 ppb, and a 1.19°C global temperature anomaly together indicate a modestly higher physical climate risk baseline.
  • era5-calibrated hazard is raised from 0.62 to 0.64 because the absolute greenhouse-gas concentrations and sustained temperature anomaly above 1.0°C support a small upward adjustment in near-term hazard conditions.
  • gfdl-physical hazard is raised from 0.74 to 0.76 because elevated atmospheric GHG concentrations and the still-high global temperature anomaly justify a conservative increase in physical hazard.
  • cmip6-core resilience is raised from 0.48 to 0.49 because global renewable electricity share at 27.84% and U.S. renewable generation at 32.5% indicate slightly stronger adaptive and energy-system resilience.
  • era5-calibrated resilience is raised from 0.54 to 0.55 because renewable power penetration above the guidance thresholds supports a modest resilience improvement.
  • gfdl-physical resilience is raised from 0.44 to 0.45 because high renewable deployment signals some incremental strengthening of system resilience despite persistent climate stress.
  • imf-weo-2026 inflation is raised from 3.1 to 3.2 because the IMF world inflation forecast is 4.4%, which exceeds the 4% adjustment threshold even though market breakevens remain moderate.
  • frb-us-policy inflation is raised from 2.7 to 2.8 because elevated oil at 105.1 USD/bbl and very high Henry Hub gas at 15.07 USD/MMBtu point to modest upward near-term price pressure.
  • nigem-global inflation is raised from 3.4 to 3.5 because the IMF inflation forecast of 4.4% and elevated energy prices support a small upward revision to global inflation assumptions.
  • imf-weo-2026 investment is reduced from 1.9 to 1.85 because world government debt at 95.3% of GDP is marginally above the fragility threshold, slightly weakening investment capacity and confidence.
  • frb-us-policy investment is reduced from 1.4 to 1.35 because the 4.57% U.S. 10-year Treasury yield modestly increases financing pressure for long-horizon investment even as broader financial conditions remain loose.
Data Quality Flags
  • previous_values is null, so no week-over-week change assessment was possible and adjustments were based on absolute levels only.
  • EU ETS carbon price proxy value of 0.859 EUR/tonne is implausible relative to market norms and dated 2025-10-01, so it was not used for transition adjustments.
  • Several structural indicators are stale annual data (World Bank 2021, global temperature 2025, copper and wheat 2026-03, Henry Hub 2026-02), limiting confidence in stronger real-time adjustments.
  • OpenAQ NO₂ sample count is only 9, so representativeness of the reported global monitor median is limited.
Model Data Dependencies
economic IMF WEO 2026 Baseline
  • IMF World Economic Outlook (April / October editions)
    Primary scenario calibration: GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, and investment trajectories by country group
  • IMF Fiscal Monitor
    Sovereign fiscal space constraints and green transition spending capacity by country
  • IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR)
    Financial stability overlay: credit conditions, corporate debt sustainability under climate stress
  • OECD Economic Outlook
    Cross-validation of developed-economy growth and inflation forecasts
  • World Bank Global Economic Prospects
    Emerging market calibration and developing-economy growth trajectory verification
economic FRB/US Policy Transmission
  • Federal Reserve CCAR / DFAST Stress Test Scenarios
    Baseline, Adverse, and Severely Adverse macro scenario parameters; primary regulatory calibration anchor
  • Federal Reserve Board FRB/US Model Documentation
    Structural parameter validation and equation system documentation
  • NY Fed DSGE Model outputs
    Cross-validation of monetary policy transmission and expectations formation
  • Brookings Hutchins Center macro forecasts
    Independent cross-check of near-term US macro trajectory
  • IMF WEO United States Chapter
    International macro calibration and global spillover baseline
economic NiGEM Global Scenario
  • NGFS Phase IV Macro Scenario Baselines
    Primary scenario calibration for orderly, disorderly, and hot house world transition pathways
  • WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics
    Bilateral trade flow calibration and trade fragmentation scenario anchor
  • IMF WEO (bilateral trade matrix)
    Country-to-country trade and capital flow calibration baseline
  • NIESR Annual NiGEM Model Review
    Structural parameter validation and model performance metrics
  • FSB Climate Supervisory Stress Test Scenarios
    Regulatory scenario alignment for cross-border financial stability analysis
climate CMIP6 Core Ensemble
  • IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM Table (2021)
    Global temperature ranges by SSP pathway — primary structural calibration of warming trajectory
  • IPCC AR6 WG2 Chapter assessments (2022)
    Physical risk sector assessments and hazard exposure mapping by region
  • NGFS Phase IV Scenario Specifications (2024)
    Alignment of CMIP6 SSP outputs to NGFS scenario family labels and regulatory disclosure requirements
  • PCMDI CMIP6 Model Evaluation Metrics
    Model performance ranking and ensemble quality filtering — basis for model weighting decisions
  • WCRP CMIP Archive (ESGF)
    Primary data source for all CMIP6 model outputs; provenance and reproducibility reference
climate ERA5-Calibrated Climate Baseline
  • ECMWF ERA5 Validation Reports (Technical Memoranda)
    Core model validation: temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and extreme event frequency against station observations
  • IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 1 (Observed Warming Trends)
    Long-run trend calibration; ERA5 is the primary observed-state input to IPCC AR6 WG1 attribution chapters
  • Munich Re NatCatSERVICE
    Loss event calibration: ERA5 weather events matched to insured loss records for physical-to-financial bridge
  • Swiss Re Sigma Natural Catastrophe Database
    Catastrophe loss calibration: extreme event ERA5 proxies validated against Swiss Re insured loss statistics
  • NOAA NCEI Billion-Dollar Disasters Database
    US-specific extreme event frequency and loss validation; ERA5 hazard intensity calibrated against NCEI economic loss records
climate NOAA GFDL Physical Risk Lens
  • NOAA GFDL Technical Memoranda (CM4, ESM4 documentation)
    Core model validation: ocean heat content, tropical cyclone intensity, hydrological cycle, and sea level rise component verification
  • IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 9 (Ocean and Cryosphere)
    Sea level rise and ocean component credibility assessment; GFDL explicitly cited for ice dynamics and deep ocean mixing
  • PCMDI CMIP6 Model Evaluation Metrics
    GFDL model performance ranking within CMIP6 ensemble — basis for weighting GFDL relative to ensemble mean
  • Swiss Re Sigma Compound Event Loss Database
    Compound event probability calibration: GFDL co-occurrence statistics validated against 1,200+ historical compound event loss records
  • FEMA NFIP Flood Insurance Claims (coastal zone)
    Coastal flooding and storm surge calibration: GFDL coastal inundation projections validated against historical NFIP claims patterns
combined CE Balanced Transition Synthesizer
  • Munich Re NatCatSERVICE (2008–2023)
    Physical hazard component weight calibration — sector-level natural catastrophe economic loss data used to calibrate climate component weights by industry via MADE minimisation
  • IMF Global Financial Stability Report (2012–2025)
    Economic transition component weight calibration — sector-level financial drawdown data from identified climate-policy events used in MADE optimisation
  • CDP Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) — 2024/2025 dataset
    Pathway consistency adjustment factor — company-level 2030 and 2050 emissions reduction commitments aggregated by sector to compute transition pressure modulation
  • NGFS Phase 4 Scenario Database (2023)
    Scenario envelope anchoring — all three component signals constrained to be consistent with NGFS Phase 4 macro-economic and emissions pathway outputs
  • IPCC AR6 WG2 Technical Chapters (2022)
    Physical hazard band calibration — Table 16.SM.1 industry-sector exposure classifications used as baseline for physical hazard component weights
combined CE Stress Fragility Overlay
  • NGFS Phase 4 Delayed Transition & Current Policies Scenarios (2023)
    Primary stress weight calibration — climate and transmission component weights set to match NGFS macro and physical risk outputs under fragmented policy pathways; policy fragmentation penalty derived from Delayed Transition versus Orderly Transition spread
  • FSB Climate Scenario Analysis — Severe Climate Scenario (2022)
    Fragility index threshold calibration — the 0.70 threshold is benchmarked against FSB severe scenario sector stress outcomes; financial sector transmission channel weights calibrated to FSB banking system NPL projections
  • Bank of England Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario — Late Action (2021)
    Regulatory shock compression parameter calibration — late-action financial sector stress magnitudes used to calibrate the policy catch-up penalty multiplier
  • IEA Fossil Fuel Asset Stranding — Production Asset Lock-in Data (2024)
    Company-level stranded asset fragility indicators — production asset lock-in ratios used to calibrate which companies trigger the >60% stranded asset fragility flag
  • Swiss Re Sigma — Natural Catastrophe and Compound Event Reports (2015–2024)
    Physical hazard compounding multiplier calibration — compound event economic loss data used to derive the compounding factor applied when consecutive-year hazard events co-occur
multi-dimensional CE Climate Solution Scale Model
  • UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024
    Baseline emissions (57 GtCO₂e/yr in 2025) and current-policy trajectory calibration; 2030 emissions gap under current nationally determined contributions
  • IPCC AR6 WG3 Chapter 6 Mitigation Potential (2022)
    Sector decomposition proportions for the 52 Gt abatement requirement; technology cost and mitigation potential ranges for each of the six modelled sectors
  • IPCC AR6 WG1 Table SPM.2 Carbon Budgets (2021, adjusted 2025)
    Carbon budget structural parameters — 1.5°C (~250 GtCO₂ remaining from 2025) and 2°C (~1,150 GtCO₂) budgets adjusted from January 2020 baseline by subtracting 2020–2024 cumulative emissions
  • IEA World Energy Technology Perspectives 2024
    Technology deployment cost curves and abatement potential for the 12 tracked emerging technologies across optimistic, base, and pessimistic scenarios
  • CE Emerging Technology Library v4.0
    Technology TRL levels, deployment ramp curves, and cross-technology double-counting correction factors for the full 12-technology portfolio stack
combined CE Transition Opportunity Index
  • IEA Net Zero by 2050 Announced Pledges Scenario — Market Sizing (2024)
    Clean manufacturing upside calibration — deployment volumes for solar, wind, batteries, and electrolyzers mapped to manufacturing revenue creation for the 2025–2040 horizon
  • IEA Critical Minerals 2024 — Demand Projections by Technology
    Critical minerals demand signal construction — mineral-by-mineral demand growth through 2035 by technology deployment scenario, enabling direct market sizing for mining and materials sectors
  • UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2023
    Adaptation services market sizing — $250–400B/yr adaptation finance gap decomposed by service category; used to size sector-level opportunity for construction, utilities, agriculture, and real estate
  • CDP A-List and SBTi Early Mover Portfolio Performance Data (2016–2024)
    First-mover premium calibration — historical performance spread between early net zero commitment cohort and sector-average peer group; grounding the premium in observed market outcomes
  • ICVCM Core Carbon Principles and Voluntary Carbon Market Projections (TNFD 2024)
    Nature-based solutions carbon market opportunity sizing — NBS credit market projections and quality premium for ICVCM-certified credits
climate CE Physical Hazard Cascade Model
  • Swiss Re Sigma — Natural Catastrophe and Compound Event Loss Records (2015–2024)
    Primary cascade amplification factor (κ) calibration — 1,200+ compound event records used to derive hazard-pair-specific amplification factors for drought-wildfire, flood-infrastructure, and heat-drought combinations
  • CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble — Regional Hazard Correlation Analysis
    Joint hazard probability matrix construction — pairwise hazard co-occurrence probabilities under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 through 2060
  • IPCC AR6 WG2 Chapter 11 — Compound and Extreme Events (2021)
    Cascade pathway taxonomy and compound event classification; confirmation that observed compound event frequency increases are consistent with anthropogenic forcing
  • Case Studies: 2017 CA Wildfires, 2011 Thailand Floods, 2022 Pakistan Multi-Hazard, 2023 Mediterranean Compound Event
    Sequential trigger pathway calibration and cross-validation of recovery compression parameter against observed multi-year regional recovery trajectories
  • BIS Working Paper 1030 — Climate and Infrastructure Cascade Risk (2022)
    Infrastructure failure cascade dependency graph — financial system exposure to compound physical-financial cascades used to calibrate infrastructure failure cascade parameters
power_technology Vietnam Utility-Scale Solar PV (Central & South Regions)
  • EVN / NLDC Grid Data (2019–2025)
    Actual curtailment statistics by province and season — primary empirical grounding for curtailment model
  • GWEC Vietnam Wind and Solar Site Surveys 2024
    Capacity factor ranges by region validated against GWEC measurement campaign data
  • IRENA Vietnam Renewable Energy Roadmap 2023
    Technology cost trajectory and deployment milestone cross-validation
  • Vietnam MOIT Power Development Plan 8 (Official Gazette, May 2023)
    Official scenario definitions and VRE targets — the authoritative planning framework
  • IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2023
    Regional solar technology cost benchmarks and grid integration comparison
power_technology Vietnam Fixed-Bottom Offshore Wind (South Central Coast)
  • Vietnam MOIT PDP8 Offshore Wind Annex (2023)
    Official capacity targets, FIT ceiling, and site designation for offshore development zones
  • Ørsted / CIP Vietnam Feasibility Studies (2022–2024)
    Site-specific met-ocean data, capacity factor validation, and LCOE trajectory for Ba Ria–Binh Thuan corridor
  • BNEF Vietnam Offshore Wind Market Outlook 2024
    Supply chain cost curve, OEM market entry timeline, and LCOE decline trajectory
  • MND Maritime Clearance Guidelines (2021 SOP)
    Permitting timeline mapping and fast-track protocol reference for JETP pathway
  • IEA Offshore Wind Outlook 2024
    Global fixed-bottom cost benchmarks and Asian offshore wind learning curve cross-validation
Methodology
CE runs a weekly data refresh agent (data_refresh_agent.py) that pulls live readings from authoritative public sources — NOAA GML for greenhouse gas concentrations, USGS NWIS for water quality, IMF DataMapper for global macro forecasts, World Bank for energy transition metrics, NOAA NCEI for billion-dollar disaster counts, and FRED for energy prices, credit spreads, and financial conditions. These raw values are sent to GPT-5.4 alongside the prior week's readings and the current CE model base parameters. The model returns a JSON patch of small, defensible adjustments (typically ±0.01–0.05 on normalised 0–1 indices, or ±0.1–0.2 on percentage rates), with a rationale citing the specific data that triggered each change. Changes are constrained to a ±10% corridor around base values and require a threshold movement in the input data to trigger any adjustment. Optional sources (OpenAQ NO₂, EIA oil/gas, FRED series) are fetched when API keys are configured via environment variables.

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