Model Comparison › Commodity Markets
Endogenous Commodity & Land-Use Markets
Cobweb-dynamics commodity price model with climate supply shocks, energy-food competition from biofuels, and land-use change simulation. Seven commodities: wheat, corn, soybeans, crude oil, natural gas, palm oil, timber. Six land-cover categories with LULUCF carbon accounting.
BIOFUEL SCENARIO:
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Wheat price Δ 2025→2050
% change
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Palm oil price Δ 2025→2050
% change
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Corn price Δ 2025→2050
% change
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Crude oil Δ 2025→2050
% change
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Cumul. LULUCF 2050
GtCO2
Commodity Price Trajectories 2025–2050
Land Cover Change (Mha)
Cumulative LULUCF Emissions (GtCO2)
Sources: Schlenker & Roberts (2009) nonlinear temperature-yield functions (PNAS) ·
FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020 (land cover baselines, deforestation rates) ·
World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (2022) energy-food price pass-through ·
REN21 (2023) biofuel demand projections · Global Forest Watch deforestation monitoring ·
IPCC 2006 Guidelines for GHG Inventories: AFOLU (Tier 1 carbon stock factors).
Note: Cobweb model is a reduced-form stylized simulation; full general equilibrium commodity modeling requires CGIAR GLOBIOM or FAOSTAT sector models.