🍁 Canada Energy Profile ~60% Hydro — World's Largest Producer Ontario Nuclear Fleet — Bruce + Darlington Alberta Oil Sands — 5M bpd — 3rd Largest Reserves
~410 TWh/yr
Ontario fleet
declining
Alberta (2024E)
Kitimat BC, 2025E
Regulations target
| Province | Key Utility | Dominant Source | Emissions Intensity (g/kWh) | Key Issue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | BC Hydro | Hydro ~97% | ~20 | Site C overruns; growing BC EV/data centre demand |
| Alberta | AESO (competitive market) | Gas ~80%, coal exiting, wind growing | ~550 | Coal retirement by 2026; 2035 CER compliance uncertain; solar/wind boom |
| Saskatchewan | SaskPower | Gas ~50%, coal ~30% | ~720 | Highest grid emissions in Canada; SMR option being studied for 2035+ |
| Manitoba | Manitoba Hydro | Hydro ~97% | ~10 | Debt overruns (Keeyask + Bipole III); export revenue critical |
| Ontario | IESO / OPG / Bruce Power | Nuclear ~60%, hydro ~25% | ~30 | Pickering retirement gap; Darlington refurb; SMR deployment by 2034 |
| Quebec | Hydro-Québec | Hydro ~99% | ~2 | First capacity shortage since 1990s; EV + battery factory demand surge |
| New Brunswick | NB Power | Nuclear (Point Lepreau 660 MW), hydro, gas | ~200 | Point Lepreau refurbishment; Atlantic Loop integration |
| Nova Scotia | Nova Scotia Power (Emera) | Coal ~50% (transitioning) | ~600 | Coal exit by 2030 (NS Clean Electricity Regulations); Atlantic offshore wind |
| PEI | Maritime Electric | Wind ~70%, import from NB | ~60 | First Canadian province to exceed wind nameplate matching demand; battery storage |
| Newfoundland | NL Hydro / Newfoundland Power | Hydro ~95% (Muskrat Falls controversy) | ~20 | Muskrat Falls: $13.1B hydro project (original $6.3B estimate), 824 MW, Churchill River — ratepayer rate shock |
Canada is positioned to be the first country to commercially deploy two different SMR technologies simultaneously: OPG BWRX-300 at Darlington New Nuclear (target 2034): partnering with TVA (US) and SaskPower to standardise across North America; expected LCOE ~$100–130/MWh — higher than solar but provides firm 24/7 capacity valued for grid reliability; NRCan committing $970M in SMR development funding; DOE US-Canada SMR partnership. AtkinsRéalis CANDU SMR for SaskPower (target 2034–2037): CANDU design (heavy water, natural uranium) avoids enriched fuel supply chain; targeting SK coal replacement. Cameco uranium: Canada produces 22% of global uranium at Cigar Lake (McArthur River on care-and-maintain); Cameco stock up 300% since 2021 on uranium price recovery. Medical isotopes: Bruce Power and BWXT Canada produce ~40% of global Lu-177 and Mo-99 from reactors — a $3B+/yr Canadian nuclear industry beyond electricity.
Canada's Hydrogen Strategy (NRCan, 2020) targets Canada as a global top-3 hydrogen exporter by 2050: Quebec green hydrogen: HQ's near-zero-carbon electricity (~$0.07/kWh) makes Quebec one of the lowest-cost green hydrogen production locations globally (~$2.50–3.00/kg H₂); multiple announced projects — Air Products/Hydro-Québec 200 MW electrolyser; Hydro-Québec and ArcelorMittal (green steel). Alberta blue hydrogen: CCUS-backed hydrogen from natural gas — Shell Quest Phase 2 (+200,000 tH₂/yr); Canadian Natural Resources; Air Products $1.3B Edmonton blue hydrogen/ammonia complex. BC Pacific green hydrogen: FortisBC / Fortescue / Atura Power offshore wind + electrolyser projects at Prince Rupert. Canada-Germany hydrogen MOU (2022): Canada to export 500 kt/yr H₂ to Germany by 2025 — behind schedule but progressing; first shipment of hydrogen-derived ammonia in 2024. IRA challenge: US green hydrogen PTC ($3/kg H₂) makes US-made green hydrogen cheaper than Canadian for US buyers — Canadian industry seeking equivalent federal support in Budget 2024 Clean Economy Investment Tax Credits ($25B).
Canada has secured three of the world's largest EV battery gigafactories under the Trudeau government's industrial strategy — part of a "Battery Belt" strategy mirroring US IRA-driven investment: Volkswagen PowerCo (St. Thomas, Ontario): VW's first overseas gigafactory; 90 GWh/yr capacity; $7B CAD investment + $13B in federal and provincial subsidies. Groundbreaking 2024; production 2027. Stellantis-LG Energy Solution NextStar (Windsor, Ontario): 45 GWh/yr; $5B investment + $15B government support. Production 2025 (delayed from 2024). Honda Canada EV ecosystem (Alliston, Ontario): $15B integrated EV factory + battery plant + parts supplier cluster; Honda's first EV assembly outside Japan/US; 240,000 EV/yr capacity; 2028 production start. Power demand: these three factories alone will require ~3–4 GW of additional Ontario electricity — straining IESO capacity planning and creating urgency for Darlington SMR and additional imports from Quebec. Critical minerals: Ontario and Quebec produce nickel (Sudbury basin), cobalt, lithium (Quebec Séquoi, Ontario), and graphite — positioning Canada as an integrated critical minerals + battery manufacturing hub. The critical minerals strategy (NRCan, 2022): $3.8B to develop Canadian critical mineral supply chains for EVs and clean technology, including new critical minerals processing plants in Quebec (lithium hydroxide) and Ontario (battery recycling).