Step 12 — Fiscal Risk

Scope & Jurisdiction

Climate Target

Energy Deployment

Land & Natural Capital

Policy Design

Technology Portfolio

Gap Accounting

Uncertainty

Physical Climate Risk

Adaptation

Economic Cost

Fiscal Risk

Finance & Investment

Just Transition

Test

Step 12 — Fiscal & Sovereign Risk

Assess government fiscal space, green bond capacity, and the probability of policy reversal given debt dynamics and governance quality.

Debt / GDP (%) 65%

Fossil fuel rev. share (%) 8%

Green investment (% GDP) 1.5%

Primary balance (% GDP) −1.5%

Policy stability score (1=fragile, 5=strong)

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Fiscal Space (% GDP)

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Green Bond Headroom ($bn)

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Reversal Risk (%)

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Spread Premium (bp)

Feeds into: Step 9 (Finance Architecture — WACC uplift from sovereign spread), Report (fiscal risk panel).

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