Forecast Archive
Saved integration runs
The model directionally captured hotter operating conditions and more frequent disruption, but overstated the uniformity of regional stress.
Observed outcome: Observed disruption increased, but regional volatility remained more uneven than the original scenario implied.
Pre-shock macro baselines missed the scale and speed of pandemic-era distortion in labor, supply chains, and inflation dynamics.
Observed outcome: Growth collapsed then rebounded unevenly while inflation and logistics shocks persisted longer than expected.
Long-run transition direction was right, but short-run financing, mineral bottlenecks, and policy divergence were under-modeled.
Observed outcome: Transition investment accelerated, but the path was more disorderly and supply constrained than the median narrative assumed.
Forecasts that combined hazard concentration with insurance repricing and capital pressure were directionally strong.
Observed outcome: Premium pressure, withdrawal risk, and availability constraints all intensified in exposed regions.