Forecast Archive
Saved integration runs
The model directionally captured hotter operating conditions and more frequent disruption, but overstated the uniformity of regional stress.
Observed outcome: Observed disruption increased, but regional volatility remained more uneven than the original scenario implied.
Pre-shock macro baselines missed the scale and speed of pandemic-era distortion. This was an acknowledged out-of-sample event — no structural break was modeled.
Observed outcome: Growth collapsed then rebounded sharply while inflation and logistics shocks persisted longer than expected — a compound shock with policy overhang that no pre-2020 model anticipated.
Long-run transition direction was right; the model underestimated the pace of solar cost decline by roughly 100%. This was a favourable forecast miss — technology beat projections.
Observed outcome: Solar LCOE fell faster than any 2016-era projection. Wright's Law learning rates for solar PV have been empirically ~40% since 2010, vs the 25% assumed in CE v2.3.
Forecasts linking hazard concentration to insurance repricing and capital pressure were directionally strong and within the predicted range for primary markets.
Observed outcome: Premium pressure, carrier withdrawal, and availability constraints all intensified in exposed regions at rates consistent with the scenario. Regulatory friction temporarily offset some contraction in 2019–2021.