Scope & Jurisdiction
Climate Target
Energy Deployment
Land & Natural Capital
Policy Design
Technology Portfolio
Gap Accounting
Uncertainty
Physical Climate Risk
Adaptation
11 Economic Cost
12 Fiscal Risk
13 Finance & Investment
14 Just Transition
Test

Step 8 — Uncertainty Analysis Analysis

Run a Monte Carlo simulation over the gap accounting parameters. The P10/P50/P90 fan chart shows the range of breakthrough gap outcomes given parameter uncertainty.

From Step 7: Base gap: Gt Carbon price: $/t δ =

Monte Carlo Settings

Report use: P10/P50/P90 bounds are shown on the final report fan chart. The P90 (worst-case) is used for the "defensible upper bound" in institutional presentations.

MC Specification — σ Values & Covariance

High-uncertainty techs (TRL ≤ 4): σ=0.30. Others: σ=0.10–0.20. Clusters: ρelec=0.21, ρCDR=0.25.

Emissions Fan Chart (P10 / P50 / P90)

Tornado — Parameter Sensitivity

IPCC Scenario Band Mapping

P(opt)=0.25, P(base)=0.5, P(pes)=0.25