Step 7 — Emissions Gap Accounting
Combine policy abatement (Step 5) with technology portfolio (Step 6) against the global baseline to compute sector-level gaps, residual breakthrough requirements, and pathway coverage versus IPCC carbon budgets.
Emissions Pathway (Gt CO₂e/yr)
Abatement Waterfall — 2050
Residual Gap by Sector
IPCC Scenario Band Mapping
| Scenario | Temp Target | Budget (Gt) | Your Coverage | Status |
|---|
Infrastructure Delay Cost
Budget Foregone by Delayed Investment (Gt CO₂e)
CO₂ Systems Coupling Chain
Cross-Sector Interaction Pathways
Energy
→
Industry
→
Transport
→
Buildings
→
Land Use
→
Agri
Hydrogen coupling: energy ↔ industry ↔ transport (12–18% overlap in avoided emissions if green H₂ achieves scale) ·
Electrification coupling: energy grid → EVs + heat pumps (15–20% co-benefit) ·
NbS coupling: land use ↔ agriculture ↔ CDR (soil carbon + reforestation double-count risk: apply δ = 0.22)
State Capacity Assessment
Policy Delivery Readiness by Sector
Capacity ratings from World Bank GovTech, NDC implementation tracker, and IEA clean energy policy data.
Feeds into Step 8 (Uncertainty): breakthrough_gap_gt, coverage_pct, and sector_gaps define Monte Carlo distribution bounds ·
Step 11 (Economic Cost): carbon_price_needed and total_abatement_gt drive the MAC curve ·
Step 13 (Finance): gap_gt informs total investment mobilization requirement