Step 10 — Adaptation & Resilience

Scope & Jurisdiction

Climate Target

Energy Deployment

Land & Natural Capital

Policy Design

Technology Portfolio

Gap Accounting

Uncertainty

Physical Climate Risk

Adaptation

11 Economic Cost

12 Fiscal Risk

13 Finance & Investment

14 Just Transition

Test

Step 10 — Adaptation & Resilience

Configure adaptation interventions to reduce physical climate risk identified in Step 9. Evaluate cost-benefit, residual risk after adaptation, and sectoral investment requirements.

From Step 9 (Physical Climate Risk): AAL: $bn/yr

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Unmitigated AAL ($bn/yr)

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Loss Avoided ($bn/yr)

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Residual AAL ($bn/yr)

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Adaptation Cost ($bn/yr)

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Avg Benefit-Cost Ratio

Adaptation Interventions

Coastal Flood Defenses

Sea walls, managed retreat, mangrove restoration, surge barriers

Enable

Investment scale $45bn/yr

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Building Heat Retrofit

Insulation, cool roofs, shade structures, passive cooling standards

Enable

Investment scale $30bn/yr

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Agricultural Crop Switching & Drought Tolerance

Heat/drought-tolerant varieties, crop diversification, irrigation efficiency

Enable

Investment scale $25bn/yr

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Water Efficiency Infrastructure

Desalination, water recycling, storage reservoirs, efficiency mandates

Enable

Investment scale $20bn/yr

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Early Warning & Disaster Preparedness

Multi-hazard warning systems, evacuation plans, emergency response capacity

Enable

Investment scale $8bn/yr

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Urban Heat Island Cooling

Green roofs, urban tree canopy, reflective pavements, cooling centres

Enable

Investment scale $18bn/yr

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Residual Risk After Adaptation

Adaptation Investment by Sector

Adaptation Effectiveness Matrix

Peril vs Intervention Coverage

% of peril loss covered by each intervention. Total shown = combined protection after de-duplication.

Feeds into Step 11 (Economic Cost): residual_aal_bn reduces the total economic damage input · Step 12 (Fiscal Risk): adaptation_cost_bn adds to transition investment public expenditure requirements

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