{
  "id": "vietnam_jetp_optimistic_jetp",
  "version": "1.0",
  "status": "sensitivity_variant",
  "parent_scenario": "vietnam_jetp_transition",
  "variant_label": "Optimistic JETP Fast-Track",
  "variant_description": "JETP Article 7 cabinet waiver extends fast-track permitting to offshore wind, compressing lead time from 8.5yr to 4.5yr. First 4 GW offshore wind commissioning 2030, contributing ~5 Mt additional abatement to the mandate window. Mandate ceiling comfortably met at ~164 Mt.",
  "scenario_type": "Power Transition",
  "name": "Vietnam JETP \u2014 Optimistic JETP Fast-Track Variant",
  "subtitle": "Offshore wind fast-track extends to 4.5yr \u2014 first 4 GW operational by 2030",
  "region_id": "vn",
  "tags": [
    "power-sector",
    "mandate",
    "offshore-wind",
    "sensitivity",
    "jetp",
    "pdp8"
  ],
  "description": "Sensitivity variant on vietnam_jetp_transition: a full JETP Article 7 cabinet waiver extends the JETP IPIP fast-track permitting regime to offshore wind, compressing the Ministry of National Defence maritime clearance and EIA process from a standard 8.5yr total lead time to 4.5yr. Under this assumption, 4 GW of South Central offshore wind achieves first power in 2030 (down from the base scenario's 2031\u20132033 projection), contributing an additional ~5 MtCO\u2082 abatement to the 2026\u20132030 mandate window. The mandate ceiling of 170 Mt is met with an 6 Mt margin at 164 Mt.",
  "baseline": {
    "year": 2026,
    "generation_fleet_gw": 84.5,
    "coal_gw": 26.0,
    "gas_ccgt_gw": 11.2,
    "hydro_gw": 22.5,
    "wind_gw": 6.8,
    "solar_gw": 16.5,
    "nuclear_gw": 0.0,
    "coal_capacity_factor": 0.58,
    "gas_capacity_factor": 0.52,
    "grid_carbon_intensity_g_per_kwh": 510,
    "annual_generation_twh": 310,
    "annual_emissions_mt_co2": 158,
    "peak_demand_gw": 51.0,
    "notes": "Identical to parent scenario vietnam_jetp_transition baseline. See parent for full fleet detail."
  },
  "target": {
    "reduction_pct": 17.9,
    "reduction_pct_basis": "bau_adjusted_2030",
    "deadline_year": 2030,
    "horizon_years": 4,
    "metric": "bau_adjusted_power_sector_co2_peak",
    "required_reduction_mt_co2": 37.0,
    "ceiling_mt_co2_by_2030": 170.0,
    "demand_growth_treatment": "growing_demand_adjusted",
    "demand_growth_cagr_pct": 9.4,
    "demand_by_2030_twh": 535
  },
  "projections": {
    "years": [
      2026,
      2027,
      2028,
      2029,
      2030
    ],
    "bau_mt_co2": [
      158,
      168,
      180,
      192,
      207
    ],
    "mandate_mt_co2": [
      158,
      162,
      164,
      164,
      164
    ],
    "ceiling_mt_co2": 170.0,
    "variant_notes": "Optimistic fast-track: offshore wind contributes ~5 Mt to 2030 abatement stack (partial-year commissioning). Base mandate path: 169 Mt. This variant: ~164 Mt \u2014 6 Mt below the 170 Mt ceiling. By_2030 abatement: base 38 Mt + offshore wind 5 Mt = 43 Mt. Margin above required 37 Mt: 6 Mt."
  },
  "tech_vectors": [
    {
      "id": "offshore_wind_south_central",
      "label": "South Central Offshore Wind (FAST-TRACK \u2014 first power 2030)",
      "description": "SENSITIVITY CHANGE: JETP Article 7 full cabinet waiver extends fast-track to offshore wind. Ministry of National Defence maritime clearance parallel-tracked with EIA under MOIT-MND joint fast-track protocol (Decree XX/2026). Total lead time compressed from 8.5yr to 4.5yr. FID Q1 2026; construction 2026-2029; first power Q3 2030. 4 GW South Central (Binh Thuan/Ba Ria) contributes ~5 Mt abatement in partial 2030 delivery year.",
      "ce_model_mapping": "vietnam_offshore_wind_fixed",
      "mapping_fidelity": "direct",
      "mapping_caveats": "Fast-track assumption (4.5yr vs standard 8.5yr) requires sustained cabinet-level political commitment and MND cooperation. No Vietnamese offshore wind project has yet commissioned \u2014 capacity factors are modelled from met-ocean surveys. 5 Mt estimate assumes ~4 months of full-capacity operation in 2030 at CF 0.50 displacing 510 g/kWh coal.",
      "constraints": {
        "permitting_timeline_yr": 3.0,
        "total_lead_time_yr": 4.5,
        "variant_change": "total_lead_time reduced from 8.5yr to 4.5yr via JETP Article 7 MND fast-track; commissioning Q3 2030 vs base 2031-2033"
      },
      "technical_parameters": {
        "target_nameplate_gw": 4.0,
        "capacity_factor": 0.5,
        "hub_height_m": 120,
        "water_depth_m_range": "15\u201335"
      },
      "estimated_mt_co2": 5.0,
      "variant_note": "Base scenario had 8.8 Mt at full-year delivery (post-2031). This variant delivers 5 Mt in partial 2030 commissioning \u2014 the remainder (3.8 Mt) accrues from 2031 operating at full capacity."
    },
    {
      "id": "solar_plus_bess_central_highlands",
      "label": "Solar PV + BESS (Central Highlands Grid Unlock)",
      "description": "Unchanged from parent scenario. Curtailment reduces 32%\u219212% with N-S backbone (unchanged).",
      "ce_model_mapping": "vietnam_utility_solar",
      "mapping_fidelity": "direct",
      "constraints": {
        "permitting_timeline_yr": 3.0,
        "total_lead_time_yr": 3.5,
        "curtailment_risk_without_transmission_pct": 32,
        "curtailment_reduction_with_bess_pct": 18
      },
      "technical_parameters": {
        "solar_target_gw": 8.0,
        "bess_target_gw": 3.2,
        "capacity_factor": 0.22
      },
      "estimated_mt_co2": 9.6
    },
    {
      "id": "coal_ammonia_cofiring",
      "label": "Coal Plant Ammonia Co-Firing (PPA Bridge)",
      "description": "Unchanged from parent scenario.",
      "ce_model_mapping": "none (cofiring retrofit \u2014 no direct CE mapping)",
      "mapping_fidelity": "not_mapped",
      "constraints": {
        "permitting_timeline_yr": 2.0,
        "total_lead_time_yr": 2.5
      },
      "technical_parameters": {
        "eligible_coal_gw": 8.0,
        "cofiring_pct_by_heat": 20
      },
      "estimated_mt_co2": 6.4
    },
    {
      "id": "north_south_transmission_backbone",
      "label": "500 kV North-South Transmission Circuit 4+5",
      "description": "Unchanged from parent scenario \u2014 Circuits 4+5 commission 2028-2029 on JETP fast-track.",
      "ce_model_mapping": "none (transmission infrastructure \u2014 enabling constraint, not abatement technology)",
      "mapping_fidelity": "not_mapped",
      "constraints": {
        "permitting_timeline_yr": 3.0,
        "total_lead_time_yr": 3.5
      },
      "technical_parameters": {
        "new_circuits": 2,
        "circuit_length_km": 1800,
        "transfer_capacity_gw_added": 5.0,
        "capex_usd_b": 7.4
      },
      "estimated_mt_co2": 12.0
    }
  ],
  "analysis": {
    "critical_path": "offshore_wind_mnd_fast_track",
    "abatement_needed_mt_co2": 37.0,
    "estimated_total_mt_co2": 33.0,
    "by_2030_abatement_mt_co2": 43.0,
    "by_2030_abatement_note": "With offshore fast-track: solar 9.6 Mt + transmission-enabled recovery 5 Mt + coal retirement 8.5 Mt + DSM 4.5 Mt + offshore wind 5 Mt (partial 2030) + cofiring 6.4 Mt = 43 Mt. BAU 207 - 43 = 164 Mt, below 170 Mt ceiling by 6 Mt.",
    "mandate_outcome": "PASS",
    "mandate_outcome_note": "Mandate ceiling met with 6 Mt margin: 164 Mt < 170 Mt JETP ceiling. Upside case showing offshore wind is decisive if fast-track is delivered. Key risk: no Vietnamese offshore wind project has yet reached COD; 4.5yr fast-track is an optimistic-end assumption.",
    "confidence": "low",
    "confidence_rationale": "MND maritime clearance fast-track has no precedent in Vietnam. Assumes Politburo energy security declaration enables joint MOIT-MND permitting protocol that hasn't been tested. All other interventions have higher confidence; this variant's PASS margin is sensitive entirely to this assumption holding.",
    "sensitivity_delta_mt_co2": 5.0,
    "sensitivity_delta_note": "Base 2030 stack: 38 Mt. This variant: 43 Mt. Delta: +5 Mt from offshore wind moving into 2030 delivery window. 5 Mt at 4 GW \u00d7 0.50 CF \u00d7 ~4 months = plausible partial-commissioning estimate.",
    "tech_contributions": [
      {
        "label": "Offshore wind (4 GW, fast-track \u2014 first power Q3 2030, partial year)",
        "mt_co2": 5.0,
        "delivery_window": "2030",
        "contributes_to_2030_mandate": true
      },
      {
        "label": "Utility solar PV + BESS (Central Highlands, 12% curtailment with backbone)",
        "mt_co2": 20.0,
        "delivery_window": "2028-2030",
        "contributes_to_2030_mandate": true
      },
      {
        "label": "Coal retirement/cancellation (unchanged from base)",
        "mt_co2": 8.5,
        "delivery_window": "2027-2028",
        "contributes_to_2030_mandate": true
      },
      {
        "label": "Demand-side management (unchanged from base)",
        "mt_co2": 4.5,
        "delivery_window": "2027-2028",
        "contributes_to_2030_mandate": true
      },
      {
        "label": "Transmission-enabled curtailment recovery (unchanged from base)",
        "mt_co2": 5.0,
        "delivery_window": "2028-2030",
        "contributes_to_2030_mandate": true
      }
    ]
  },
  "created": "2026-05-25",
  "last_updated": "2026-05-25",
  "author": "CE Scenario Engine v3.7 \u2014 sensitivity variant"
}