Model Catalog
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economic
IMF WEO 2026 Baseline
Economic
Current
active
Top-down macro baseline for near- and medium-term global conditions.
Horizon 2025–2031
Geography Global (195 countries)
Resolution Sector-level via aggregate decomposition
Projection years 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031
GDP growth
Inflation
Investment
Labour markets
Climate transition risk
Carbon price trajectory
Trade flows
Methodology
The IMF World Economic Outlook constructs a globally consistent macro baseline from Article IV country consultations and a multi-country DSGE framework, updated twice yearly. The 2026 edition introduces a Climate Transition Risk module that applies growth-at-risk haircuts to carbon-intensive sectors based on their distance from net-zero pathways. CE adapts the WEO by extracting industry-level decompositions from IMF Fiscal Monitor and IEA sector accounts, overlaying industry-native calibrations for each of the six tracked sectors. Under a delayed transition pathway, the model embeds a stranded-asset haircut on capital formation and a terms-of-trade penalty for carbon-intensive exporters.
Key Mechanisms
- PPP-weighted aggregate demand: cross-country growth is demand-pull consistent across 195 member countries
- Inflation expectations channel: monetary policy stance modulates how quickly inflation expectations anchor to target, affecting investment timing
- Climate Transition Risk module: carbon-intensive sectors face growth-at-risk haircuts proportional to regulatory exposure under each pathway
- Policy uncertainty premium: transition from coordinated to fragmented policy regimes adds an investment drag via higher discount rates
- Labor market tightness: derived from structural unemployment gap, skills mismatch in green transition sectors, and participation rate trends
Best For
global baseline growth, inflation, and policy context
Strengths
- Global consistency — 195-country accounting framework prevents double-counting of cross-border exposures
- Quarterly revision cycle maintains near-term accuracy and incorporates rapidly evolving climate policy signals
- Explicit policy scenario framework: base case, upside, and stress scenarios are fully specified with quantified growth-at-risk
Limitations
- Top-down decomposition: sector signals are derived from aggregate accounts, not independently modelled from firm-level data
- Financial sector feedback loops (banking, insurance) are partially off-model — treated as transmission channels, not endogenous
- Assumes continuous market adjustment; discontinuous shocks (debt cliff, energy price spike) are captured via scenarios only
Industry Signal Dashboard
— projected signals from this model across all tracked industries
Growth Rate by Industry
Projected annual real GDP growth rate (%) for each industry under this model's default scenario.
Inflation by Industry
Projected price-level growth rate (%) per industry under this model.
Investment Index by Industry
Capital expenditure growth index — positive values indicate expanding investment activity.
Industry Context
Energy
Energy sector growth under the IMF WEO is anchored to oil price and commodity market projections, adjusted for transition capex displacement. The model's investment signal for energy reflects the IMF's estimated clean energy investment gap (~$4tn/year by 2030 vs ~$1.8tn current). High fossil-fuel revenue dependency creates structural inflation sensitivity when oil price volatility is elevated — a direct link to Aramco and ExxonMobil's production economics.
Agriculture
Agricultural growth is governed by food price dynamics, terms of trade for commodity exporters, and input cost inflation (fertilizer, energy). The WEO captures climate-related yield loss risk as a medium-term growth drag (~9–23% reduction by 2050 under baseline scenarios). Food export restrictions in response to climate shocks are modelled as a trade fragmentation risk, calibrated against Cargill and JBS supply chain disruption data.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing growth reflects industrial production, global trade volumes, and investment in automation and electrification. The CBAM creates an asymmetric competitive impact between EU and non-EU manufacturers that WEO now explicitly models. Hard-to-abate sectors (steel via ArcelorMittal, cement via Holcim) face the highest investment-to-transition cost ratio in the WEO framework.
Transport
Transport sector growth in the WEO is a derived-demand function following trade volumes and industrial output rather than being independently modelled. CE overrides this with sector-native freight and passenger volume projections (ITF, ICAO) for the growth signal. IMO 2028 carbon levy costs — anchored to Maersk's compliance trajectory — are treated as a sector-specific inflation shock on shipping inputs.
Insurance
The WEO models insurance via financial sector accounts — premium growth links to GDP, claims trends link to physical risk events. CE augments this with nat-cat loss data from Munich Re and Swiss Re sigma to ground the claims inflation signal at sector level. The model captures the insurance protection gap as a fiscal risk in markets where insurer retreat forces public backstop obligations.
Real Estate
Real estate investment is highly interest-rate-sensitive in the WEO framework. Rate normalisation post-2023 created a 12–18% capital value correction in commercial real estate globally — Vonovia's 60% valuation decline is the model's calibration event. The WEO also tracks the EPC retrofit mandate pipeline (via British Land and Prologis compliance costs) as a capex obligation that structurally reduces free cash flow.