Model Catalog
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climate
ERA5-Calibrated Climate Baseline
Climate
Current
active
Observed-state anchored climate profile for calibration-heavy use cases.
Horizon 1940–2025 (historical); 2025–2030 near-term
Geography Global (~31 km reanalysis grid)
Resolution Sub-daily observed state; facility-level via point extraction
Projection years 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
Observed warming trend
Precipitation variability
Extreme event frequency
Wind & solar resource
Drought & flood indices
Operational disruption correlation
Methodology
ERA5 is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global reanalysis product, covering 1940–present at hourly resolution and ~31km spatial resolution. It provides the observed-state anchor for near-term physical risk calibration — grounding CE's climate signals in measured physical reality rather than model projections. CE uses ERA5 trend data to calibrate the current climate state (1.2°C observed warming, precipitation variance trends, extreme heat frequency) and correlates it with actual company operational disruption records (BASF Rhine levels, DHL hub closures, Union Pacific heat advisories) to validate the causal chain from climate variable to economic impact.
Key Mechanisms
- Observational anchor: ERA5 reanalysis provides the single best estimate of historical climate state, verified against 80+ years of station data
- Trend detection: multi-decadal ERA5 trends in temperature, precipitation, and extreme events are statistically validated before entering the model
- Operational disruption correlation: ERA5 weather event data is matched to company operational records to calibrate impact thresholds
- Near-term projection: ERA5 initialised short-range climate projections (1-5 year) are more skilful than long-run CMIP6 projections for this horizon
- Physical-to-financial bridge: ERA5 observed loss events are matched to insured loss records (Munich Re, Swiss Re) to calibrate the economic cost per unit of physical stress
Best For
historical calibration and near-term climate-state anchoring
Strengths
- Grounded in observation — no model uncertainty from climate model structural assumptions; reflects what has already happened
- Near-term accuracy (1-5 year horizon) significantly exceeds CMIP6 ensemble for weather-regime and extreme event frequency
- Company operational disruption validation: ERA5 allows direct verification of climate-to-impact pathways using real corporate loss records
Limitations
- Backward-looking by design: does not capture the structural shift in risk from future emissions trajectories
- Understates fat-tail physical risks for the 2040-2100 horizon relative to CMIP6 or GFDL projections
- Reanalysis uncertainty is low for temperature but higher for precipitation extremes and tropical cyclone intensity — key insurance sector drivers
Industry Signal Dashboard
— projected signals from this model across all tracked industries
Physical Hazard Pressure by Industry
Physical hazard index (0–1) indicating asset and operational exposure to climate-related physical risks.
Transition Pressure by Industry
Regulatory and market pressure from the low-carbon transition — 0 (low) to 1 (high).
Adaptive Resilience by Industry
Resilience index (0–1) — the industry's estimated capacity to adapt to physical and transition risk.
Industry Context
Energy
ERA5 anchors the energy sector's near-term physical risk in observed data. It documents current wind resource availability (NextEra's capacity factors), solar irradiance trends, and hydropower catchment water balance — all driving real-world clean energy production. ERA5 trend data confirms the 1.2°C of observed warming already affecting cooling demand and grid stress events at scale.
Agriculture
ERA5 is the observed-state anchor for agricultural risk — it documents already-occurring shifts in growing season length, precipitation patterns, and extreme heat frequency affecting yields now. The model grounds CE's agriculture calibration in measured change rather than projections, making it particularly valuable for near-term (1–3 year) agricultural outlook. JBS's and Cargill's South American growing region ERA5 data directly calibrates the near-term yield risk signal.
Manufacturing
ERA5 provides the historical record that calibrates current manufacturing physical risk. BASF's Rhine water level data, Rio Tinto's Pilbara heat records, and ArcelorMittal's facility disruption logs are all correlated against ERA5 observed data to establish baseline loss rates. This model reports only what has been observed — making it the most conservative and credible calibration for near-term risk.
Transport
ERA5 documents observed changes in transport route availability: Arctic shipping route navigability (sea ice extent, relevant to Maersk's Arctic corridor), road surface temperature exceedance events (Union Pacific), and port infrastructure exposure to historical storm surge (Delta hub airports). ERA5 provides the empirical calibration anchor against actual disruption records for all four transport sub-modes.
Insurance
ERA5 is the primary data source for historical nat-cat loss calibration. ERA5 weather event data underlies the catastrophe models used by Munich Re, Swiss Re, and AXA to calibrate expected annual losses. CE uses ERA5 trend analysis to identify whether the frequency of loss-threshold events is already shifting — the answer is unambiguously yes across hurricane, flood, wildfire, and extreme heat peril lines globally.
Real Estate
ERA5 provides the observed record of flooding events, heat extremes, and storm damage already affecting real estate valuations. Property price data in repeatedly flooded areas shows a measurable discount emerging in the observed record — Vonovia's assets in German flood zones and British Land's London flood risk mapping are both calibrated against ERA5 precipitation and storm surge datasets.