Model Catalog
/
climate
CMIP6 Core Ensemble
Climate
Current
active
Multi-model climate ensemble backbone for scenario-conditioned physical risk.
Horizon 2025–2100
Geography Global (50–100 km grid)
Resolution Grid-cell physical hazard; sector via asset overlay
Projection years 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2100
Temperature anomaly
Precipitation extremes
Sea-level rise
Tropical cyclone intensity
Carbon budget trajectories
SSP scenario pathways
Implied carbon price
Methodology
CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) is the international standard for long-run climate scenario analysis, harmonising outputs from 40+ global climate models under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-1.9 through SSP5-8.5). CE uses the CMIP6 ensemble to construct probability distributions over physical risk parameters — temperature anomaly, precipitation extremes, sea-level rise, and tropical cyclone intensity — for each sector's asset and operational exposure profile. Transition pressure signals are grounded in the implied carbon price trajectory required to achieve each SSP scenario's emissions pathway. Company-level Scope 1+2+3 emissions are mapped to SSP scenarios to determine the gap between current trajectories and model-consistent pathways.
Key Mechanisms
- Multi-model ensemble: 40+ global climate models are pooled to produce probability distributions rather than deterministic projections
- SSP scenario mapping: each climate pathway (orderly, delayed) corresponds to an SSP scenario that determines the magnitude of physical and transition signals
- Implied carbon price trajectory: the carbon price required to achieve each SSP pathway becomes the transition pressure calibration input
- Sector asset exposure: company-level physical asset locations are mapped to CMIP6 hazard projections to compute sector-specific hazard scores
- Emissions-to-trajectory gap: company Scope 1+3 trajectories are compared to SSP-consistent sector pathways to derive transition pressure adjustment
Best For
long-run scenario diversity and physical risk framing
Strengths
- Internationally standardised — CMIP6 outputs are the basis for all IPCC AR6 WG2 physical risk assessments and NGFS Phase 4 scenarios
- Multi-model ensemble captures deep uncertainty: the spread of model outcomes is explicit rather than hidden in a single deterministic projection
- Long-run horizon (2100) provides the full physical risk trajectory needed for infrastructure and real estate investment decisions
Limitations
- Coarse spatial resolution (50-100km grid) requires downscaling for facility-level physical risk assessment
- Short-term (1-5 year) physical risk signals are less credible than ERA5-calibrated near-term observational anchors
- SSP scenarios assume smooth policy implementation — the transition pressure signal underestimates delayed-action shock risk
Industry Signal Dashboard
— projected signals from this model across all tracked industries
Physical Hazard Pressure by Industry
Physical hazard index (0–1) indicating asset and operational exposure to climate-related physical risks.
Transition Pressure by Industry
Regulatory and market pressure from the low-carbon transition — 0 (low) to 1 (high).
Adaptive Resilience by Industry
Resilience index (0–1) — the industry's estimated capacity to adapt to physical and transition risk.
Industry Context
Energy
CMIP6 provides the physical hazard calibration for energy infrastructure — temperature stress on thermal efficiency, water availability for cooling, and extreme weather disruption to transmission networks. Aramco's Gulf operations face SSP2-4.5 wet bulb temperature thresholds by 2040. The transition pressure signal reflects the implied carbon price trajectory that would strand fossil assets — the key risk for ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP under SSP1-2.6.
Agriculture
CMIP6 is the primary climate model for agricultural yield risk — it directly models precipitation variability, soil moisture deficit, heat stress days, and growing season shifts for major crop-producing regions. The ensemble mean projects a 2–6% yield decline per degree of warming for major cereals, with high spatial variance. JBS, Cargill, and Bunge's South American growing regions are among the highest-exposure areas in the CMIP6 agricultural hazard map.
Manufacturing
CMIP6 physical risk for manufacturing centres on industrial facility exposure: heat-related productivity losses, water stress for process cooling (critical for BASF's Verbund system), and flooding of supply chain infrastructure. The CMIP6 ensemble captures fat-tail distributions of compound extreme events that create the highest insurance and operational cost scenarios for ArcelorMittal's coastal steel facilities and Rio Tinto's Pilbara operations.
Transport
CMIP6 provides the physical disruption risk for transport infrastructure — sea-level rise exposure of coastal ports (Maersk's global terminal network), extreme precipitation damage to road and rail (Union Pacific), heat deformation of infrastructure, and cyclone intensity increases for shipping routes. The IMO uses CMIP6 projections as the basis for its climate vulnerability assessment of shipping routes.
Insurance
CMIP6 is the foundation of catastrophe model calibration for insurance pricing. Allianz, Munich Re, and Swiss Re all use CMIP6 ensemble outputs to stress-test their nat-cat exposure books against future climate states. CMIP6 projects increasing loss volatility — higher variance around the mean loss year as tail events become more frequent — which directly compresses reinsurance capacity and drives premium inflation.
Real Estate
CMIP6 physical risk for real estate is the most direct of all sectors: flood inundation maps, coastal erosion projections, wildfire expansion, and urban heat island intensification all derive from CMIP6 ensemble projections. The model projects that 20–25% of current coastal real estate globally faces material climate risk by 2050 under RCP4.5 — directly relevant to Prologis's coastal logistics hubs and Brookfield's global asset portfolio.