{
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "bangladesh_bay_of_bengal_transition",
      "name": "Bangladesh Bay of Bengal Climate Transition",
      "subtitle": "Power-sector decarbonization in the world's most climate-vulnerable large economy under RMG export pressure",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "adaptation",
        "flood-risk",
        "coastal",
        "solar",
        "gas-transition",
        "rmg-cbam"
      ],
      "target_year": 2033,
      "target_pct": 40,
      "region_id": "bd",
      "created": "2026-05-17"
    },
    {
      "id": "brazil_amazon_reforestation",
      "name": "Brazil Amazon Legal Reserve Reforestation",
      "subtitle": "World's largest tropical forest restoration under Forest Code compliance and EUDR market pressure",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "land-use",
        "reforestation",
        "redd-plus",
        "carbon-sequestration",
        "eudr",
        "forest-code",
        "success-case",
        "nature-based"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 90,
      "region_id": "br",
      "created": "2026-05-17"
    },
    {
      "id": "cascading_infrastructure_failure",
      "name": "Cascading Infrastructure Failure Scenario",
      "subtitle": "Heat wave \u2192 grid overload \u2192 water pumping failure \u2192 telecom collapse \u2192 supply chain disruption \u2192 hospital overload",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "compound-risk",
        "grid-reliability",
        "cascading-failure",
        "water",
        "telecom",
        "supply-chain",
        "public-health",
        "systems-risk"
      ],
      "target_year": 2035,
      "target_pct": 0,
      "region_id": "us",
      "created": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": "china_food_security_climate",
      "name": "China Food Security Under Climate Stress: North China Plain Aquifer Depletion and Yangtze Drought",
      "subtitle": "China's 95%+ grain self-sufficiency mandate colliding with North China Plain aquifer collapse and Yangtze River drought cycles",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "food-security",
        "water-stress",
        "agriculture",
        "china",
        "aquifer-depletion",
        "yangtze",
        "grain-reserve",
        "climate-adaptation",
        "global-food-prices"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 0,
      "region_id": "cn",
      "created": "2026-05-31"
    },
    {
      "id": "colorado_river_basin_crisis",
      "name": "Colorado River Basin Water-Energy Nexus Crisis Mandate",
      "subtitle": "Replacing 2.2 GW of derated hydropower as Lake Mead and Powell fall below critical turbine head thresholds",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "water-energy-nexus",
        "drought",
        "hydropower",
        "battery-storage",
        "agriculture",
        "colorado-river"
      ],
      "target_year": 2032,
      "target_pct": 15,
      "region_id": "us_southwest",
      "created": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": "commercial_space_stratospheric_forcing",
      "name": "Commercial Space Launch Surge \u2014 Stratospheric Forcing Trajectory",
      "subtitle": "Tens of thousands of annual rocket launches deposit water vapor and black carbon directly in the stratosphere \u2014 the unregulated climate forcing agent that no current accounting framework tracks",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "commercial-space",
        "stratospheric-forcing",
        "water-vapor",
        "black-carbon",
        "ozone-depletion",
        "unregulated-emissions",
        "radiative-forcing",
        "rocket-launches",
        "SpaceX",
        "Starship",
        "mega-constellation",
        "emerging-risk"
      ],
      "target_year": 2050,
      "target_pct": 0,
      "region_id": "global",
      "created": null
    },
    {
      "id": "electrification_material_constraint",
      "name": "Electrification Material Constraint Scenario",
      "subtitle": "Can the energy transition occur without a copper and transformer bottleneck?",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "supply-chain",
        "bottleneck",
        "copper",
        "transformers",
        "electrification",
        "grid-infrastructure",
        "mandate",
        "industrial-policy"
      ],
      "target_year": 2033,
      "target_pct": null,
      "region_id": "us",
      "created": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": "european_dunkelflaute",
      "name": "European Dunkelflaute Grid Stress Test",
      "subtitle": "Storage exhaustion timelines and reserve margin collapse during a 14-day dark doldrums + cold winter + LNG interruption",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "grid-reliability",
        "dunkelflaute",
        "wind",
        "solar",
        "storage",
        "europe",
        "gas-dependency",
        "compound-risk"
      ],
      "target_year": 2035,
      "target_pct": 55,
      "region_id": "eu",
      "created": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": "green_climate_fund_deployment_gap",
      "name": "Green Climate Fund Deployment Gap",
      "subtitle": "The Distance Between Climate Finance Pledges and Project-Level Disbursement in Vulnerable Nations",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "climate funds",
        "GCF",
        "adaptation finance",
        "loss and damage",
        "blended finance",
        "developing nations",
        "NDC financing"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 50,
      "region_id": "global",
      "created": "2026-05-22"
    },
    {
      "id": "gulf_wetbulb_survival",
      "name": "UAE/Gulf Wet-Bulb Survival Energy Mandate",
      "subtitle": "Decarbonizing 37 GW of gas-dominated grid as wet-bulb temperatures approach the 35\u00b0C human survivability threshold",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "wet-bulb",
        "extreme-heat",
        "solar",
        "nuclear",
        "desalination",
        "fossil-transition",
        "insurance-retreat",
        "uae"
      ],
      "target_year": 2032,
      "target_pct": 45,
      "region_id": "ae",
      "created": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": "himalayan_peak_water_transition",
      "name": "Himalayan Peak Water Transition",
      "subtitle": "Glacier-Dependent Indus Basin Under Peak-Water Overshoot and Downstream Agriculture Collapse",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "glacial melt",
        "peak water",
        "Pakistan",
        "agriculture",
        "irrigation",
        "India",
        "geopolitics"
      ],
      "target_year": 2040,
      "target_pct": 35,
      "region_id": "indus_basin",
      "created": "2026-05-22"
    },
    {
      "id": "india_glacier_water_stress",
      "name": "India Himalayan Glacier Water Stress Transition",
      "subtitle": "Peak water crisis and adaptation mandate for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Indus system under accelerating glacier retreat",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "water-stress",
        "glacier-retreat",
        "adaptation",
        "india",
        "himalaya",
        "agriculture",
        "hydropower",
        "food-security",
        "napcc"
      ],
      "target_year": 2035,
      "target_pct": 35,
      "region_id": "in",
      "created": "2026-05-31"
    },
    {
      "id": "insurance_market_withdrawal",
      "name": "Insurance Market Withdrawal Scenario",
      "subtitle": "Which assets become economically nonviable first as insurers exit wildfire, flood, and hurricane markets?",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "insurance",
        "climate-risk",
        "physical-risk",
        "financial-stress",
        "managed-retreat",
        "fiscal",
        "mortgage",
        "mandate"
      ],
      "target_year": 2035,
      "target_pct": 35,
      "region_id": "us",
      "created": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": "mekong_cascade_stress",
      "name": "Mekong River Cascade Stress",
      "subtitle": "Transboundary Hydropower Competition and Agricultural Water Crisis",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "transboundary water",
        "hydropower",
        "food security",
        "rice exports",
        "fisheries",
        "saltwater intrusion"
      ],
      "target_year": 2035,
      "target_pct": 40,
      "region_id": "mekong_basin",
      "created": "2026-05-22"
    },
    {
      "id": "morocco_green_hydrogen_mandate",
      "name": "Morocco Saharan Green Hydrogen Export Mandate",
      "subtitle": "North Africa's first large-scale green hydrogen corridor linking Atlantic wind to EU industry",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "solar",
        "wind",
        "green-hydrogen",
        "export",
        "cbam",
        "jetp"
      ],
      "target_year": 2032,
      "target_pct": 45,
      "region_id": "ma",
      "created": "2026-05-17"
    },
    {
      "id": "pakistan_flood_climate_risk",
      "name": "Pakistan Climate-Amplified Flood Risk and Sovereign Debt Stress",
      "subtitle": "Repeat mega-flood risk under IMF programme constraints: can Pakistan finance resilience without violating fiscal conditionality?",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "flood-risk",
        "sovereign-debt",
        "climate-adaptation",
        "pakistan",
        "imf",
        "agriculture",
        "glof",
        "monsoon",
        "loss-and-damage"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 0,
      "region_id": "pk",
      "created": "2026-05-31"
    },
    {
      "id": "rust_belt_mandate",
      "name": "Rust Belt Decarbonization Mandate",
      "subtitle": "Regional power-sector mandate with industrial export penalty",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "coal-transition",
        "ccus",
        "grid-constraint"
      ],
      "target_year": 2033,
      "target_pct": 45,
      "region_id": "us",
      "created": "2026-05-17"
    },
    {
      "id": "saudi_aramco_managed_transition",
      "name": "Saudi Arabia ARAMCO Managed Energy Transition",
      "subtitle": "Deploying 50 GW of solar to replace oil-fired generation, unlock $15B/yr in forgone export barrels, and meet CBAM obligations before Vision 2030 deadline",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "oil-transition",
        "solar",
        "fiscal-dependency",
        "stranded-assets",
        "cbam",
        "vision-2030",
        "aramco",
        "pif"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 40,
      "region_id": "sa",
      "created": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": "shanxi_dual_carbon_mandate",
      "name": "Shanxi Province Dual-Carbon Transition Mandate",
      "subtitle": "Coal-heavy province decarbonization under China's 2035 peak targets",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "coal-transition",
        "wind",
        "ccus",
        "dual-carbon",
        "ets"
      ],
      "target_year": 2035,
      "target_pct": 35,
      "region_id": "cn",
      "created": "2026-05-17"
    },
    {
      "id": "south_australia_100pct_renewable",
      "name": "South Australia 100% Net Renewable Grid",
      "subtitle": "World's leading proof-of-concept for high-penetration renewable reliability in a market grid",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "solar",
        "wind",
        "grid-stability",
        "battery",
        "vpp",
        "success-case"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 42,
      "region_id": "au",
      "created": "2026-05-17"
    },
    {
      "id": "south_florida_coastal_mandate",
      "name": "South Florida Coastal Energy Resilience Mandate",
      "subtitle": "Solar-led grid decarbonization with hurricane hardening",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "solar",
        "offshore-wind",
        "hurricane-resilience",
        "sea-level-rise"
      ],
      "target_year": 2035,
      "target_pct": 50,
      "region_id": "us",
      "created": "2026-05-17"
    },
    {
      "id": "texas_ai_water_stress",
      "name": "Texas AI + Water Stress Compound Scenario",
      "subtitle": "Can Texas remain the AI capital of North America under simultaneous drought, thermal derating, and demand surge?",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "compound-risk",
        "water-energy-nexus",
        "drought",
        "thermal-derating",
        "ai-demand",
        "grid-reliability",
        "ercot"
      ],
      "target_year": 2031,
      "target_pct": 2,
      "region_id": "us",
      "created": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": "texas_ercot_ai_demand",
      "name": "Texas ERCOT AI-Driven Grid Expansion Mandate",
      "subtitle": "Maintaining reliability against 15 GW AI/data-center demand surge by 2031",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "grid-reliability",
        "battery-storage",
        "ai-demand",
        "ercot",
        "demand-growth"
      ],
      "target_year": 2031,
      "target_pct": 2,
      "region_id": "us",
      "created": "2026-05-05"
    },
    {
      "id": "vietnam_jetp_chinese_lender_block",
      "name": "Vietnam JETP \u2014 Chinese Lender Block Variant",
      "subtitle": "CDB/Exim Bank block Vinh Tan 2/4 + Vung Ang 2 capacity-factor reduction \u2014 mandate missed",
      "status": "sensitivity_variant",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "coal-transition",
        "ppa-risk",
        "sensitivity",
        "jetp",
        "china"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 17.9,
      "region_id": "vn",
      "created": "2026-05-25"
    },
    {
      "id": "vietnam_jetp_delayed_transmission",
      "name": "Vietnam JETP \u2014 Delayed Transmission Variant",
      "subtitle": "Circuits 4+5 slip 2 years: Central region curtailment locked at 32% through 2030",
      "status": "sensitivity_variant",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "transmission",
        "sensitivity",
        "jetp",
        "pdp8"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 17.9,
      "region_id": "vn",
      "created": "2026-05-25"
    },
    {
      "id": "vietnam_jetp_optimistic_jetp",
      "name": "Vietnam JETP \u2014 Optimistic JETP Fast-Track Variant",
      "subtitle": "Offshore wind fast-track extends to 4.5yr \u2014 first 4 GW operational by 2030",
      "status": "sensitivity_variant",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "offshore-wind",
        "sensitivity",
        "jetp",
        "pdp8"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 17.9,
      "region_id": "vn",
      "created": "2026-05-25"
    },
    {
      "id": "vietnam_jetp_transition",
      "name": "Vietnam JETP Power Transition Mandate",
      "subtitle": "Decarbonizing Southeast Asia's fastest-growing coal grid under $15.5B international finance package",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "coal-transition",
        "solar",
        "offshore-wind",
        "jetp",
        "pdp8"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 17.9,
      "region_id": "vn",
      "created": "2026-05-17"
    },
    {
      "id": "voluntary_carbon_market_stress",
      "name": "Voluntary Carbon Market Credibility Crisis",
      "subtitle": "When Offset Integrity Failure Voids the Corporate Net-Zero Architecture",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "carbon markets",
        "offsets",
        "net-zero",
        "corporate finance",
        "REDD+",
        "greenwashing",
        "VCM"
      ],
      "target_year": 2030,
      "target_pct": 80,
      "region_id": "global",
      "created": "2026-05-22"
    },
    {
      "id": "west_virginia_coal_to_clean",
      "name": "West Virginia Appalachian Coal-to-Clean Transition",
      "subtitle": "Just transition mandate for America's most coal-dependent state grid under ARCH2 hydrogen hub",
      "status": "active",
      "tags": [
        "power-sector",
        "mandate",
        "coal-transition",
        "hydrogen",
        "just-transition",
        "arch2",
        "ira"
      ],
      "target_year": 2033,
      "target_pct": 40,
      "region_id": "us",
      "created": "2026-05-17"
    }
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