{"capabilities":[{"description":"SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 anchored to IPCC AR6 WG1 Table SPM.1. Linearly interpolated; p10/p90 from CMIP6 ensemble.","domain":"Physical Climate","id":"CAP-CLM-001","known_limits":"Does not run CMIP6 GCMs natively; uses published anchor values.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"CMIP6-anchored temperature trajectories","references":["IPCC AR6 WG1 (2021)","Hausfather et al. (2022)"],"status":"live","validation_benchmark":"CMIP6 multi-model mean \u00b10.1\u00b0C at 2050 gate","version_added":"1.0"},{"description":"Heat, flood, drought, wildfire, coastal, storm scored 0\u20131 per industry per pathway. Calibrated to IPCC AR6 WG2 Chapter 11.","domain":"Physical Climate","id":"CAP-CLM-002","known_limits":"Industry-level aggregation; not asset-level.","last_validated":"2025-11-10","name":"Sectoral physical hazard scoring (6 dimensions)","references":["IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch. 11 (2022)","MSCI Climate Risk 2023"],"status":"live","validation_benchmark":"Within 1 tier for 87% of industries vs MSCI Climate Risk 2023","version_added":"1.0"},{"description":"Structural baseline + shock overlay + policy overlay for 4 macro signals. Calibrated to IMF WEO, World Bank GEP.","domain":"Macroeconomics","id":"CAP-ECO-001","known_limits":"Single-country or single-sector view; no trade-flow endogeneity.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"Signal/noise economic decomposition","references":["IMF WEO (semi-annual)","World Bank GEP"],"status":"live","validation_benchmark":"IMF WEO \u00b11pp at 2-year horizon","version_added":"1.0"},{"description":"New Keynesian 3-equation system (IS, PC, Taylor rule) with climate extensions. Illustrative impulse responses. Not a full production-grade rational-expectations solution.","domain":"Macroeconomics","id":"CAP-ECO-002","known_limits":"No sector disaggregation; no open-economy extension; no rational-expectations matrix solver. Full production use requires additional calibration.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"DSGE / CGE macroeconomic model","references":["Christiano et al. (2005)","Taylor (1993)"],"status":"prototype","validation_benchmark":"Directionally consistent with Christiano et al. (2005) IRFs; magnitude simplified","version_added":"3.7"},{"description":"Technology-category gap accounting following UNEP EGR and IEA NZE methodology. 8 abatement categories. Calibrated to 2025 reference year.","domain":"Emissions","id":"CAP-EMI-001","known_limits":"Global aggregate only; no country-level endogenous accounting.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"Bottom-up gap accounting","references":["UNEP EGR 2024","IEA NZE 2023"],"status":"live","validation_benchmark":"\u00b13% of UNEP EGR 2024 central estimate at 2030","version_added":"2.0"},{"description":"Burke et al. (2015) pooled global coefficient \u03b1=2.0. Physical and transition damage separated. Capped at 20% GDP.","domain":"Damage Functions","id":"CAP-DAM-001","known_limits":"Contested \u03b1 exponent \u2014 see parameter flag P-DAM-001. Does not model non-linearities above 4\u00b0C well.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"Quadratic temperature-GDP damage function","references":["Burke, Hsiang & Miguel (2015)","Dietz & Stern (2015)"],"status":"live","validation_benchmark":"AAL within 8% of Swiss Re sigma 2023 global estimates","version_added":"2.0"},{"description":"LCOE(t) = LCOE(0) \u00d7 (Q/Q\u2080)^\u2212b for 8 clean-energy technologies. Learning rates from Lafond et al. (2018). IEA WEO 2023 comparison.","domain":"Energy System","id":"CAP-ENE-001","known_limits":"Simplified merit-order dispatch; not a full mixed-integer LP. Not suitable for utility-grade planning.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"Wright's Law technology cost trajectories","references":["Lafond et al. (2018)","IEA WEO 2023","IRENA 2023"],"status":"live","validation_benchmark":"Solar PV back-cast R\u00b2=0.91 vs BNEF 2023 actuals","version_added":"3.7"},{"description":"N=10,000 stratified samples over joint parameter distribution. p5/p25/p50/p75/p95 fan charts. Seed=42 for reproducibility. Converges at N\u22488,200.","domain":"Monte Carlo / Uncertainty","id":"CAP-MC-001","known_limits":"Parameter distributions are CE estimates; not externally calibrated joint distributions. Not yet independently peer-reviewed.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"Probabilistic uncertainty engine (Monte Carlo)","references":["IPCC AR6 carbon budget distribution"],"status":"prototype","validation_benchmark":"p50 stable to \u00b10.3% above N=1,500; Gelman-Rubin R\u0302<1.01","version_added":"3.7"},{"description":"Cobweb price dynamics with climate supply shocks. Schlenker & Roberts (2009) yield-temperature relationship. Biofuel demand pull for corn, soy, palm.","domain":"Commodity Markets","id":"CAP-COM-001","known_limits":"Parameterized inputs, not endogenous global commodity market. No cross-market spillovers (metals, energy-food links limited).","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"Commodity price dynamics (cobweb model)","references":["Schlenker & Roberts (2009)","World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook 2022"],"status":"prototype","validation_benchmark":"Not yet independently benchmarked","version_added":"3.7"},{"description":"GEV distribution for 7 perils. OEP curves at 2\u20131,000 year return periods. Climate loading per \u00b0C from IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch.11. TVaR-99 approximated.","domain":"Catastrophe / Actuarial","id":"CAP-CAT-001","known_limits":"Does not integrate commercial CAT model platforms (AIR, RMS). Actuarially directional, not certified. Portfolio scaling uses industry proxy.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"GEV catastrophe model with climate loading","references":["Swiss Re sigma 1970\u20132023","Munich Re NatCatSERVICE","IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch. 11"],"status":"prototype","validation_benchmark":"AAL within 8% of Swiss Re sigma 2023; not independently actuarially certified","version_added":"3.7"},{"description":"Sovereign risk transmission from climate damage \u2192 fiscal \u2192 financial sector. Stranded asset write-down fractions from NGFS scenario families.","domain":"Financial Stress","id":"CAP-FIN-001","known_limits":"Deterministic per scenario; no probability distributions over sovereign rating transitions.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"Fiscal and financial stress transmission","references":["NGFS Phase IV (2023)","IMF Fiscal Monitor"],"status":"live","validation_benchmark":"NGFS orderly/disorderly scenario bracket check","version_added":"3.5"},{"description":"All scenarios version-tagged, seeded (seed=42 default), full input/parameter/dependency snapshots. Docker image for bitwise reproduction.","domain":"Reproducibility","id":"CAP-RPR-001","known_limits":"Cross-architecture floating-point variation <0.001%.","last_validated":"2026-01-15","name":"Deterministic scenario replay","references":[],"status":"live","validation_benchmark":"Bitwise identical on same platform version and seed","version_added":"3.7"},{"description":"Formal academic peer review of methodology, calibration choices, and outputs has not yet occurred. Targeted for v4.0 release.","domain":"Reproducibility","id":"CAP-RPR-002","known_limits":"Not yet achieved. Current status: methodology documented and version-controlled; external review not yet completed.","last_validated":null,"name":"Independent external peer review","references":[],"status":"roadmap","validation_benchmark":"Target: submission to peer-reviewed journal by v4.0","version_added":null},{"description":"Annual rocket launch radiative forcing 2024\u20132060 across conservative/moderate/aggressive scenarios. Models H\u2082O, BC, NOx, Al\u2082O\u2083/HCl propellant contributions. Calibrated to Dallas et al. (2020) and Ryan et al. (2022).","domain":"Commercial Space","id":"CAP-SPC-001","known_limits":"Parameterized propellant mix; does not model individual launch vehicle trajectories or real-time emission inventories.","last_validated":"2026-06-12","name":"Stratospheric launch forcing (RF trajectories)","references":["Dallas et al. (2020)","Ryan et al. (2022)","Jackman et al. (2013)"],"status":"prototype","validation_benchmark":"Moderate 2040 RF = 53.96 mW/m\u00b2; moderate 2050 RF = 172.69 mW/m\u00b2","version_added":"3.8"},{"description":"Per-layer health score 0\u20131 for troposphere, tropopause, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, and exosphere. Stressor analysis, economic exposure, and cross-layer feedback pathways. Kessler cascade probability included.","domain":"Commercial Space","id":"CAP-SPC-002","known_limits":"Mesosphere, thermosphere, and exosphere scores use simplified parameterizations; not independently peer-reviewed.","last_validated":"2026-06-12","name":"Atmospheric layer health scoring (troposphere\u2013exosphere)","references":["IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch. 6","Jackman et al. (2013)","Kelley et al. (2018)"],"status":"prototype","validation_benchmark":"Directionally consistent with IPCC AR6 stratospheric ozone and thermospheric cooling trends","version_added":"3.8"},{"description":"Ozone column projections in Dobson Units 2024\u20132070 by launch scenario. UV-B increase quantification, crop yield losses, skin cancer costs, marine productivity impacts. Total economic cost in $B/yr.","domain":"Commercial Space","id":"CAP-SPC-003","known_limits":"Rocket depletion attribution is estimated; CFC legacy and N\u2082O contributions use WMO 2022 baselines.","last_validated":"2026-06-12","name":"Ozone column depletion & UV-B economic impact","references":["WMO/UNEP (2022)","Bornman et al. (2015)","UNEP UV-B Assessment (2023)"],"status":"prototype","validation_benchmark":"Ozone 2040 = 293.1 DU (3.27% depleted vs. pre-industrial 303 DU baseline); UV-B cost 2040 = $57.2B/yr","version_added":"3.8"},{"description":"Political reversal risk is a scenario-level parameter, not an emergent outcome of agent-based modeling of political actors.","domain":"Agent-Based","id":"CAP-ABM-001","known_limits":"Not implemented. Established ABM systems lead here.","last_validated":null,"name":"Agent-based political instability modeling","references":[],"status":"not_impl","validation_benchmark":null,"version_added":null},{"description":"AFOLU treated as narrative scenario input; no endogenous land-use carbon module.","domain":"Land Use","id":"CAP-ABM-002","known_limits":"Not implemented. Full AFOLU modeling (e.g., MAgPIE, GCAM-land) not yet integrated.","last_validated":null,"name":"Integrated land-use change and carbon sequestration module","references":[],"status":"not_impl","validation_benchmark":null,"version_added":null}],"last_updated":"2026-05-21","maturity_label":"Operational Prototype","maturity_note":"CE v3.7 is an operational prototype. Core climate-economic models are live and cross-validated against institutional benchmarks. Several advanced modules (Monte Carlo, DSGE, Catastrophe, Commodity) are prototype-grade: implemented and running but not yet independently peer-reviewed or actuarially certified. External peer review is targeted for v4.0.","platform_version":"3.7.0","status_counts":{"live":8,"not_impl":2,"prototype":7,"roadmap":1},"status_labels":{"live":"Operational; cross-validated against published benchmarks","not_impl":"Not implemented; established frameworks lead here","prototype":"Implemented and running; not yet independently validated","roadmap":"Planned; design exists, code not yet complete"}}